The following films have been postponed and need to be changed on active slates:
The Wild Hunt has been bumped to 9/17, so it is no longer viable in the June leagues.
Happythankyoumoreplease has been postponed until 2011, so it is no longer viable in any current leagues.
Saw VII 3D has been shifted from 10/22 to 10/29, so in the August leagues it will be available for only one weekend.
Shrykespeare
Christopher Nolan has once again proven to be the King of July. Inception was able to hold off Angelina Jolie and Salt for its second straight weekend victory. All things considered, it's looking like an outstanding pick for the July leagues. It's already well past $150 million, and it currently sits at #3 on the IMDb All-Time-Best-Rated Movies list with a hefty 9.3. It may or may not have the mustard to finish in the Top 5 highest-grossing films of the year, but it's beginning to look like Christopher Nolan has joined Pixar and James Cameron as Hollywood's surest bets.
But can Inception hold on for a third consecutive week? There are three new films coming the weekend of July 30th, and two of them have possibilities, but for very different reasons. The one that's probably the most likely to give Inception a run for the crown is Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, a kiddie action/comedy from Warner Bros. This is a sequel to the 2001 film Cats & Dogs, which became a surprise hit in summer of that year, earning $93 million domestically and over $200 internationally. That film starred the voices of Alec Baldwin, Tobey Maguire, Susan Sarandon, Jon Lovitz, Joe Pantoliano and Michael Clarke Duncan. However, of that bunch, only Pantoliao and Duncan return for the sequel.
The concept: cats and dogs, the most common household pets in the U.S., are not only superintelligent beings capable of very human-like behavior, but are each part of a vast, high-tech organization whose mission is to stop the other from becoming too dominant. However, both species must join forces in order to combat the nefarious Kitty Galore (Bette Midler), who is fed up with both species and wants to enslave the human race. (Bad Kitty!) Fighting her is a team led by a German Shepherd police dog named Diggs (James Marsden). Other celebrity voices include Paul Rodriguez, Christina Applegate, Nick Nolte, Roger Moore, Katt Williams, Neil Patrick Harris and Wallace Shawn.
Obviously, this film is meant for kids, so I'm loathe to underestimate its chances, no matter how godawfully dumb it looks. (I mean, seriously? A [i]Silence of the Lambs[/i] reference? How many kids who want to see this movie even know who Hannibal Lecter is?) Still, it made a big splash in July 2001 (earning $93 million), and last year's kiddie action flick [i]G-Force[/i], did even better than that ($120 million).
With school starting for many kids within the next few weeks, this looks to be the last big kiddie hit of the summer. Warner Bros. sure thinks so, since they are shoving it into over 3,700 theaters, including many 3D locations. I'm going to predict $80 million total for Revenge, which makes its $10 price tag in July very appealing. $10 in Ultimate will probably get you six Top 5 points, and maybe one or two PTA if you're lucky. Don't expect a User Rating much higher than 5.0, however.
Dinner For Schmucks is next up, and though it is only being shown in roughly 2,500 theaters, it's got quite an impressive pedigree. It is directed by Jay Roach, who also directed Meet the Parents, Meet the Fockers and all three Austin Powers films. It features Steve Carell, starring in his third major film since April, and Paul Rudd, the rising comedic star of such films as Role Models and I Love You, Man.
A remake (of sorts) of the French play La Diner de Cons, Dinner For Schmucks centers on the character of Tim Wagner (Rudd), an up-and-coming exec who is on the cusp of achieving entry to the promised land: a corner office and a key to the executive washroom. But he still has to do one thing to impress is rather snooty boss (Bruce Greenwood), who on a monthly basis hosts a dinner for his immediate staff. But it's more than just a dinner, you see, it's actually a contest. Whichever guest brings the biggest idiot – who is there specifically to be made fun of – gets the most privileges.
Tim's fiancé Julie (Stephanie Szostak) is horrified, of course, and Tim balks at the idea... that is, at first. Enter Barry Speck (Carell), a solitary – and very odd – IRS agent who seems to be the perfect choice. But Tim is a softie at heart, and a friendship is eventually struck up between the two, a friendship that takes several disturbing (and destructive) turns, as Carell seems to channel a little bit of Jim Carrey's The Cable Guy and a little bit of Bill Murray from What About Bob?.
This film actually looks really funny. I'm interested to see how it ends, and the presence of The Hangover's Zach Galifianakis as a self-professed “mind-control expert” can only add to the hilarity. Dinner For Schmucks is rated PG-13, which tells me that the truly “adult” humor has been toned down so young audiences can enjoy it. But will they?
This film was priced at $13 Ultimate ($12 Box Office), unfortunately long before we realized that such a disparity in release platform would exist between it and Cats & Dogs. As such, and given that Inception and perhaps Salt are likely to remain close or or over $20 million this weekend, I am predicting a finish no higher than #4 for Schmucks. It may make $50 million in the long run, but that still wouldn't really justify its price tag.
The last of the wide-release films this week is Charlie St. Cloud, starring teen heartthrob Zac Efron in the title role. But he's not singing or dancing this time around, nor is he the rejuvenated persona of Matthew Perry (thank God). Charlie is a resident in a small seaside town who is just about to depart for college, leaving behind his mother (Kim Basinger) and little brother Sam (I Am Legend's Charlie Tahan). Before leaving, Charlie promises Sam that he will practice baseball with him until he leaves.
But tragedy strikes when the brothers are in a terrible car accident that ends up killing Sam and leaving Charlie hollow and full of guilt, so much so that he gives up on college and takes a job as a caretaker at the cemetery where Sam is buried. He deals with his grief by communicating with his brother's “spirit”, and through these conversations must find a way to heal his broken soul and perhaps win the heart of a local yachtswoman (Amanda Crew) who dreams of sailing around the world. Ray Liotta and Donal Logue co-star.
Charlie will also be bowing in roughly 2,500 theaters, but I find it hard to believe that it will be able to crack the Top 5 at all. It won't outgross Dinner For Schmucks, and given Despicable Me's minute drops, I don't think Charlie's $10 million opening weekend will even come close. It's only $8 (in either league), but I seriously doubt this film will give you numbers in any category that make its purchase worth it.
And now, a little bit about this weekend's three limited-release films:
Get Low ($5 Ult) – This entrant at the Toronto Film Festival looks like a definite winner, and could possibly even take the PTA crown. It stars Robert Duvall as Felix Bush, a crusty old hermit living in backwoods 1930's Tennessee. Felix has got a bad reputation, and many rumors swirl around his name... perhaps he's a murderer, perhaps he's in league with the devil himself. No one really knows for sure, so imagine the townsfolk's surprise when Felix shows up and ask the owner of the local funeral parlor (Bill Murray) to organize a “living funeral party” for him.
The plot: anyone with something to say about Felix can show up and tell it while he listens, and show up they do, including a local widow named Mattie (Sissy Spacek), one of the few people who remembers Felix from decades before, before he withdrew from society. Stories will be told, and Felix himself will come clean about what made him go away in the first place. Lucas Black, Gerald McRaney and Bill Cobbs co-star.
Director Aaron Schneider seems to have hit the mother lode so far. Fifteen reviews for Get Low have been entered on RT, and ALL of them are positive, including critics from such publications as Hollywood Reporter, Variety and Film.com. It also has a very impressive User Rating (7.7 with over 300 votes). However, I have been unable to discern just how many screens will be showing this film, and that is a vital piece of information to have before choosing this film. If it turns out to be below ten screens, I would say, definitely snap this one up.
Le Concert (The Concert) ($4 Ult) – This French film directed by Radu Mihaileanu centers on the character of Andrei Filipov (Aleksei Guskov), a former conductor for Moscow's Bolshoi Orchestra who had his career destroyed by Brezhnev thirty years earlier for his political beliefs (he refused to fire the Jewish members of his orchestra). Now working as a janitor, he has occasion to intercept a fax from the prestigious Theatre du Chatelet in Paris. This inspires him to – almost Blues Brothers' style – “get the band back together”. Of course, “the band” is his former orchestra, more than fifty musicians who are now mostly alcoholic ex-musicians, and getting them together and organized and ready to fly to Paris to finish the Tchaikovsky concerto that they were unable to complete three decades earlier will be no mean feat.
The Rating for Le Concert is also very good (7.6 with nearly 2,000 votes), but the critical reviews are somewhat mixed (12/19 positive on RT). BOM has it coming out in only two theaters, and I shouldn't have to tell you that French films tend to do very well in the PTA category. If you think that Get Low won't pan out for you, this might be a worthy susbstitute.
The Extra Man ($4 Ult) – This quirky-looking comedy, led by directors Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini (American Splendor) and based on the novel by Jonathan Ames, stars Kevin Kline (where has HE been?) as Henry Harrison, a failed playwright who now earns a living by “entertaining” wealthy (and lonely) older women. He takes in an aspiring writer named Louis Ives (Paul Dano), and proceeds to teach him his lifestyle. John C. Reilly (fresh off Cyrus), Cathy Moriarty and Katie Holmes co-star.
The trailer looks funny, and I personally love Kline in this kind of role. But early reviews have been less than stellar (only 3/7 positive), and get this: according to the film's official website, The Extra Man is already available “On Demand, Direct TV, Dish Network Playstation, Xbox Live, Amazon and Vudu”... which makes me wonder if anyone will bother showing up at whatever theaters (three, to be exact) are showing it. Pass.
My predictions for the weekend of July 30-August 1, 2010:
1. Inception - $26 million
2. Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore - $24 million
3. Salt - $19 millions
4. Dinner For Schmucks - $18 million
5. Despicable Me - $17 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the final month of the Summer Season gets under way as we tackle the first few films of August, which are: The Other Guys, a buddy/cop drama starring Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg as NYPD desk jockeys who try to get some real cop action; Step Up 3D, the third in the series of street-dance movies; Middle Men, based on the story of two 1995 businessmen who get the idea of selling porn over the Internet; as well as limited-release films Flipped, Twelve, Lebanon and Cairo Time.
Later!
Shrykespeare
Let's hear it for Christopher Nolan, who after this past weekend can put another notch in his belt. Not only will Inception be, like The Dark Knight, one of the most critically-raved films of its year, but her will have dispelled any lingering doubts that he is one of the most original and innovative directors currently working in Hollywood today. Mark your calendars, folks, for the third Batman film is scheduled to hit theaters two years from right now. That's 104 weeks, 728 days, and approximately 200 Diamondback losses. (Yeah, it's just not getting any better.)
The big guns of summer are slowly becoming tiny dots in our rear-view mirror. Iron Man 2, Robin Hood and Shrek 4 have had their fun. Karate Kid, Grown Ups and The Last Airbender are now gracefully bowing out. And even Twilight: Eclipse and Toy Story 3 will be down to seven-digit weekends starting this Friday. The number of potential blockbusters between NEXT Friday and the end of October can probably be counted on one hand. For many youngsters, school will be starting any day now. But before scholastic drudgery begins anew, there is one more slam-bang high-octane thrill ride left to be had this summer, and it stars one of Hollywood's most famous and sexiest packages.
I am, of course, referring to Salt, starring A-list actress Angelina Jolie in the title role. The film is directed by Australian helmer Phillip Noyce, who is no slouch to directing political-intrigue actioners (having been behind the camera for Patriot Games and Clear and Present Danger as well as The Bone Collector, a 1999 thriller that co-starred a 24-year-old Jolie).
Jolie plays CIA agent Evelyn Salt, whose life is turned upside-down when a former Russian-spy-turned-defector walks in off the street and accuses her of being a sleeper agent for the KGB, and whose mission it is to assassinate the President of the United States. Of course, even a false accusation of that magnitude is enough to get you detained indefinitely, so Salt must go on the run in an attempt to not only prove her innocence but prevent said assassination attempt herself. Liev Schreiber, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Andre Braugher co-star.
It's interesting to note that the original script for Salt was written for a man to play – specifically, Tom Cruise, who eventually turned it down stating that it was too close to his role in the Mission: Impossible films – but if any woman in the business can carry this film on her own, it's Jolie, who has led the way in numerous blockbusters of her own, including Wanted, Mr. and Mrs. Smith and the second Lara Croft movie. And, of course, how many critics will use the headline "A 'Salt' with a deadly weapon", I wonder...
Sony/Columbia is putting Salt into nearly 3,500 theaters come Friday, and I fully expect that the action crowd will be there to meet it. In all, I expect $48 million in its first three days, which is a little bit lower than Inception pulled in last week, but the good news is, it's only $18 to Inception's $26 (in both leagues). The further good news is, which the three films opening on July 30th looking extremely weak by comparison, Salt has an excellent chance at going back-to-back. In all, it could pick up as many as fourteen Top 5 points, along with a few PTA and a terrific User Rating (probably no lower than 7.0). I have to believe that this film has more box-office potential (around $150 million) than anything else coming out between now and November, so if you have the room on your July roster, snap this one up.
Up next is Ramona and Beezus, a live-action kiddie movie from Fox Studios that is based on the series of children's novels by author Beverly Cleary. It stars pop star and singer Selena Gomez – who turns 18 years old the day this Thursday - as Beatrice “Beezus” Quimby, and Joey King (Quarantine) as her little sister Ramona, an irrepressible third grader with a vivid imagination, boundless energy and is more than just a little accident-prone.
I didn't really get a sense of the movie's actual plot from the trailer, but Wikipedia says that Ramona's “sense of fun, adventure and mischief must come in handy when she puts her mind to helping save her family's home before it's too late”. There are also some very recognizable faces in the supporting cast, which includes John Corbett, Bridget Moynahan, Josh Duhamel, Ginnifer Goodwin and Sandra Oh.
Like most harmless feel-good rated-G kids' movies, it's rather tough to track just how well-received a film will be. I myself have seen some advertising for this film, but not much... though it wouldn't surprise me if they've been plugged like crazy on networks like the Disney Channel or Nickelodeon. Still, only 2,700 theaters or so will be showing it, so I'm going to predict a rather soft opening of $11 million, which will be good enough for fourth place only. It's only $8 in Ultimate leagues ($7 in Box Office), but for that, you'll probably only get two Top 5 points, no PTA and a middling User Rating. I'd pass on it.
And now, a little bit about this weekend's three limited-release features.
Life During Wartime ($4 Ult) – Well, if anything has the oomph (besides Salt) to knock The Kids Are All Right off of its PTA perch, it's probably this one. No, it has nothing to do with the awesome 1979 song by the Talking Heads, but it still looks pretty hefty. It's been showcased at many notable film festivals including Venice (where it won best Screenplay), Toronto, New York and Telluride.
Director Todd Solondz (Palindromes, Happiness) has brought together a stellar cast, including reprising characters from Happiness (but with different actresses): Trish (Allison Janney), Joy (Shirley Henderson) and Helen (Ally Sheedy). Also in the cast are Ciaran Hinds, Paul Reubens, Charlotte Rampling and Michael K. Williams.
I won't go much into the plot, beyond the fact that it looks like a very biting satirical comedy with more than just a few political overtones. It looks like the very definition of an art-house movie, and given that it will be shown in only one theater this weekend, I think it has the strongest chance to strike PTA gold of the bunch this week. It also has a decent User Rating so far (6.7), but that could even improve.
Countdown to Zero ($3 Ult) – Also with a 6.7 User Rating is this documentary about the escalating nuclear arms race. Director Lucy Walker and the people who helped create An Inconvenient Truth paint a picture that is really quite disturbing... namely, that because of international terrorism, lax security and whatnot, the people of this planet are actually closer to nuclear oblivion than they were during the Cold War. The film will include stock footage of interviews and speeches with many political bigwigs, including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev.
Will this film galvanize audiences the way Al Gore's project did? Unknown. It's only opening in three places this Friday (in New York and Washington D.C.), so PTA points are indeed possible. But between the PTA prospects of Salt, Life During Wartime and The Kids Are All Right, I don't think it's the best choice for your slates.
Valhalla Rising ($2 Ult) – The last time Danish filmmaker Nicholas Winding Refn got behind a camera, it was to bring us the critically-acclaimed film Bronson, which he also co-wrote. The same applies to this brutal Viking saga, which stars Mads Mikkelsen (who played Le Chiffre in Casino Royale) as One Eye, a mute Scandinavian slave who is caged like an animal and only released so he can fight for money. But when a slave boy named Are slays his captors and frees One Eye, the pair must find their way home, joining a band of Viking Christian warriors en route to Jerusalem. But things are never quite that simple...
There's nothing like a good Viking epic to bring back that grimy feel of one millennium ago, is there? In the 50's and 60's, there were plenty to go around. But that era of history hasn't been touched on much of late, and despite the appeal, I don't think there will be much of an audience for this one, despite it's debuting in only one theater. I'd pass on this one, if only for the fact that its Rating is only 5.9 (with over 3,600 votes, which means it's not likely to “rise” much). Heh.
My predictions for the weekend of July 23-25, 2010:
1. Salt - $48 million
2. Inception - $32 million
3. Despicable Me - $20 million
4. Ramona and Beezus - $11 million
5. The Sorcerer's Apprentice - $10 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week I'll have a full plate, with seven films to contend with as we close out the May-July season, including: Dinner For Schmucks, a comedy starring Steve Carell and Paul Rudd; Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, a live-action kiddie comedy about household pets joining forces to vanquish the schemes of an evil feline; Charlie St. Cloud, a drama starring High School Musical hunk Zac Efron; as well as limited-release films Le Concert (which was postponed from this week to next), Get Low, Twelve and The Extra Man.
Later!
Shrykespeare
Well, I severely underestimated this past weekend's allure... I predicted that the Top 5 films would earn only about $110 million, but they instead ended up earning over $155 million. Both Despicable Me and Predators opened way higher than I anticipated, and even The Twilight Saga: Eclipse avoided the Week 2 swoon that has plagued the franchise thus far, dropping only 48% from its first weekend (though, to be fair, because of the Wednesday opening, the Fri-Sun numbers weren't quite as staggering as they were for Twilight or New Moon). And Toy Story 3 has indeed passed Finding Nemo and Alice in Wonderland to become, respectively, the #1 Pixar movie of all time and the #1 top-grossing film of 2010. Bravo!
While technically the summer season doesn't “conclude” until the end of August, it's easy to argue that the summer movie "season" ends at the end of July. (When I was a kid, we didn't start school until after Labor Day. Now, kids are starting in August. Which, when you live in Arizona, is just... wrong.) The upcoming slate would seem to bear that out. There are three movies coming in the next two weeks that have blockbuster potential, but after that things begin to look a little sparse. Which is not to say that August has NO potential $100 million earners, it could have as many as three (The Other Guys, The Expendables and possibly Eat Pray Love), but none of those are as guaranteed as next week's Salt or the two wide-release movies coming this Friday.
$533 million. That is how much money Christopher Nolan's last movie, The Dark Knight, made at the box office in the U.S. in 2008, making it (at the time) the second-most successful film of all time. (Now it's #3, thanks to another film that has already gotten too much ink.) But more than that: that film is widely regarded as the best comic-book/superhero movie of all time. It broke records, it won over critics (94% on over 250 reviews at RT) and viewers (an 8.9 rating at IMDb), and won multitudes of awards, including a posthumous Oscar for Heath Ledger.
Before The Dark Knight, director Christopher Nolan was a rising star, having helmed other hits such as Memento, The Prestige and, of course, Batman Begins. Helming such a juggernaut as TDK has cemented his name as one of the best directors in Hollywood, to the point where studios are likely to give him a blank check to turn their scripts into box office magic for the next ten years. And while we are all salivating over the next Batman installment – which, if the rumors are true, will start filming next spring and will be in theaters in July 2012 – we have Nolan's latest fim, Inception, hitting theaters this Friday.
Now, will Inception make the same coin as TDK? Not a chance in hell. But as far as critics are concerned, it deserves to be ranked right up there with Nolan's best. There are 17 reviews in the can at RT for this film, and ALL of them are positive. Kirk Honeycutt of The Hollywood Reporter calls Inception “a devilishly complicated, fiendishly enjoyable sci-fi voyage across a dreamscape that is thoroughly compelling... [it is] easily the most original movie idea in ages.”
It's been difficult for me to wrap my head around the plot, what little I've been able understand of it so far. In Inception, there is a new kind of corporate espionage wherein a thief enters a person's dreams in order to steal ideas. This is done by a team of “extractors” who design the architecture of the dream, infiltrate it and even use drugs to help several people share the same dream. One of the best at this is Dom Cobb (Leonardo DiCaprio), who for reasons that are unknown at this time is on the run and unable to return to his family in the U.S. But then, a powerful businessman (Ken Watanabe) offers Dom his life back in exchange for him doing one special job... with a twist. Instead of stealing a dream, he wants Dom to implant one, an idea that will cause the mark (Cillian Murphy) to break up his father's multi-billion dollar company for “emotional” reasons.
The supporting cast is very impressive, and includes THREE actors from Batman Begins: Watanabe, Murphy, and Michael Caine (who plays Dom's father-in-law). Also present are Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ellen Page, Marion Cotillard, Tom Hardy, Pete Postlethwaite, Tom Berenger and Lukas Haas.
Inception is going to be playing in just under 4,000 theaters come Friday. Twilight: Eclipse has already started losing steam, and I'm virtually certain that Nolan's name and the positive WOM will mean a #1 finish for this film. It will likely bring in at least eleven Top 5 points, a healthy amount of PTA, and a terrific Rating (well over 8.0). It's a great pick, but it's certainly not a cheap pick, obviously.
In fact, after Eclipse, it's the second-most-expensive film of the season. It will run you $26 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues. I would not spend that much on it, however, unless you are convinced that it can make at least $180 million. Will it be able to? I'm on the fence. Nolan's obviously put forth a very cool-looking, intelligent movie, and that worries me... will it overly-cerebral premise and the lack of the Caped Crusader be enough to draw a big crowd? I'd like to think so, but still, I'd be wary... particularly when you've got Salt, a very-well-advertised action film starring sexy vamp Angelina Jolie, coming up next week. That film may not gross as many dollars as Inception, but it will be close, and it has the possibility of earning even more Top 5 points for less money ($18).
While critics are falling all over themselves to praise Inception, however, a few of them are already preparing the tar and feathers for The Sorcerer's Apprentice, which marks the third time that Walt Disney Pictures has teamed up producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Jon Turtletaub with actor Nicolas Cage... though this is the first time that it's not for the National Treasure franchise.
Of course, for most Disney enthusiasts, to hear the name The Sorcerer's Apprentice is to instantly conjure up (heh) images of Mickey Mouse losing control over a multitude of an ever-increasing plethora of sentient, water-carrying, deluge-causing mops. Although there looks to be kind of a tribute to that segment of the classic Disney film Fantasia, this story takes place in the modern day.
Cage plays Balthazar Blake, a disciple of Merlin, who has wandered the earth for one and a half millenia searching for a young boy foretold of in a prophesy, a prophesy that states that he must stand against an army of evil wizards who mean to destroy the world with an army of dead souls. And of course, where to find such a boy? Why, in New York, of course! Enter nerdy college student Dave Butler (Jay Baruchel, coming off a busy spring with She's Out of My League and How to Train Your Dragon) appears to fit the bill, so Balthazar must train the young novice in the ways of sorcery before his arch-nemesis, a sly, brooding fellow named Maxim Horvath (Alfred Molina) comes looking for him. About the best thing I found among the reviews present at RT was that the actors played their roles fairly well.... that is, with the exception of Cage, who shows “no spark of inventiveness... his character is all wardrobe, makeup and long, scraggly hair.”
Well, not even Disney can hit it out of the park every time. I expect it to make about $100 million, but not much more, not when films like Despicable Me, Inception and Salt are going to be drawing big audiences (not to mention whatever residual audiences Eclipse and Toy Story 3 have left). I predict $42 million in Apprentice's first five days. (Oh, did I mention it comes out on Wednesday? No? My bad.) This means that it will get no more than five or six Top 5 points, barely any PTA and a Rating in the 6.2-6.8 range. Definitely not worth $17 in Ultimate, but in Box Office it qualifies as "barely worth it".
This week's only limited-release feature up for consideration is The Wild Hunt, a Canadian drama/horror film that is produced and directed by Alexandre Franchi (who also co-wrote the screenplay). The film centers on a young man named Erik (Ricky Mabe), who has just had a falling-out with his girlfriend Evelyn (Kaniehtiio Horn), who just so happens to be one a group of people that enjoys live-action role-playing, re-enacting the conditions, lifestyle and language of medieval times.
Now, as I'm sure you can imagine if you've ever been to a Renaissance Fair or SCA outing (or even if you've just seen Role Models), there are people in groups like this who take it WAYYYYY too seriously. And as such, the one thing they hate more than anything is someone who bursts their fantasy-bubble by bringing modern technology or irrelevant problems to "their" world. And when Erik interrupts events in an attempt to win Evelyn back, things take a horrifically ugly turn... think Lord of the Flies, but with supposedly reasonable adults. You know, the kind of adults who probably start riots when their favorite team wins the championship.
I have not been able to ascertain just how many theaters will be showing The Wild Hunt this Friday. Whether there are any PTA points in store for it, I'm not sure. It's only $3, and for that you will get a very good User Rating (right now it's at 7.6, but with only 136 votes). It does have a shot at PTA points, given that it's the only limited-release film this week, but given the total PTA domination of The Kids are All Right last week, I have to believe that that film will win the crown again this week (and if it doesn't, Inception will probably be the one that beats it). The Wild Hunt may walk off with two or three points, but it's definitely a gamble. It's got unknown actors, an unknown director and a premise that doesn't exactly scream “watch me”. I would probably pass on this one.
My predictions for the weekend of July 16-18, 2010:
1. Inception - $65 million
2. Despicable Me - $33 million
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice - $23 million ($42 million 5-day)
4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $16 million
5. Toy Story 3 - $15 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, Angelina Jolie straps on the sexy outfits and the heavy artillery for Salt, a high-octane espionage action thriller also starring Liev Schreiber and Chiwetel Ejiofor; Ramona and Beezus, an adaptation of the best-selling series of children's books starring Selena Gomez and Joey King; as well as limited-release features Life During Wartime, Countdown to Zero and Valhalla Rising.
Later!
Shrykespeare
Well, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse did pretty much as expected... it broke the opening-day record (for a Wednesday), and is already on its way to fizzling out. Whereas New Moon came darn close to reaching $300 million, it would shock me if Eclipse, despite being the best-reviewed film of the bunch, had the gusto to even reach $250 million. So those of you who chose it in Ultimate... well, you knew what you were getting into. Meanwhile, Toy Story 3 is #6 on IMDb's Highest Rated Films of All Time list, and it should pass Finding Nemo in the next 2-3 weeks to become Pixar's most successful film to date. Huzzah!
But time marches on, and this Friday (July 9th) brings with it five new titles for consideration. And this is where the (July) season starts getting interesting. If you were smart, you took Eclipse in the July Box Office leagues... but now what? You've got four movies this month (and maybe as many as three next month) with the potential to do $80 million or more. But you can't possibly fit ALL of them on your slate, so how do you choose? There are pros and cons attached to nearly all of those titles... but that's why I'm here, I guess.
Many summer movies have terrific ad campaigns. But I don't remember ever having my television screen blitzed by ads for ANY movie like I have for Despicable Me. There was a time, not too long ago, when I was extremely jazzed about seeing this film. The prospect of having two animated super-villains go at each other, Spy vs. Spy-style, was very appealing. The fact that the main character was being voiced by Steve Carell was all the motivation I needed to see it.
Gru (Carell) is a megalomaniacal villain planning various large-scale nefarious deeds from a secret lair beneath his suburban home. His arch-nemesis is Vector (Jason Segel), who one-ups him and his army of diminutive, dim-witted minions (which look like little yellow suppositories clad in overalls and goggles) at every turn. Seemed like a potentially hilarious story, that.
But then, the ad campaign became less about the rivalry between Gru and Vector than it did about the other sub-plot: namely, that Gru somehow becomes a father figure to three little orphan girls. Every commercial I've seen in the last month has had them front and center, with Gru juggling the tasks of plotting his theft of the moon (yes, the MOON) and being an impromptu parent.
NBC, the network that airs Carell's hit show The Office, has been going all-out in promoting this film. Not only have there been scores of commercials, but the film has been plugged shamelessly on shows like Last Coming Standing and Losing It With Jillian, among others. And not only that, it seems every half hour on NBC you will find the film's title, complete with the little yellow minions congaing across the bottom of the screen. At this point, I just want the damn movie to come OUT already, so the onslaught on my senses can finally end.
I fully expect Eclipse to drop like a stone on its second weekend, so despite its being released in only 3,200 theaters, I predict an OW of $32 million for Despicable Me. For $18 (in both leagues), you could get as many as ten Top 5 points and a few PTA. It's gotten great reviews so far (6/6 on RT, 8.0 with over 300 votes at IMDb), so it won't hurt you there either. It does have a shot at $100 million, but probably not much more than that.
Also out in wide release this Friday is Predators, Robert Rodriguez's attempt to breathe life back into the sci-fi/horror franchise that began in 1987 with the original Predator, one of the coolest and most visceral action movies of all time and one of Schwarzenegger's best. It spawned a sequel three years later that had its moments, but wasn't quite as good. And then came the whole Aliens vs. Predator thing... based on one scene in Predator 2 where it was learned that the two species were enemies, a comic book was created, and from that two really BAD movie adaptations were thrust upon us. (Well, the one scene at the end of the first one where Sanaa Lathan teamed up with the Predator was pretty cool, but that was pretty much it. The second movie was a complete turdasaurus.)
I can only hope that the “aliens” that made this formidable alien species look so mediocre are nowhere to be found in Predators, which is directed by Nimrod Antal (Vacancy, Armored). Taking place 13 years after the events of Predator 2 (which itself took place “in the near future”), the film centers on a small group of people who are abducted by the Predators and deposited on a world that is basically a “game preserve”... and they are to be hunted by the fearsome creatures.
Mercenaries, warriors, and cold-blooded killers all, the group has quite a few familiar faces, including Adrien Brody, Laurence Fishburne, Topher Grace, Danny Trejo (who is also in the upcoming Machete), Alice Braga and Mahershalalhashbaz Ali. Together they must find a way to band together to survive the hunt and escape (if such a thing is possible).
Set to bow in 2,700 theaters, Predators is rated R for extreme violence and gore. And while the prospect of this series returning to the characteristics that made it great intrigues me, I can't help but wonder if this franchise has any steam left. It will run you $13 in both July leagues, and honestly, I don't think it will justify that price. With all the holdovers, I don't imagine higher than a #5 finish this week, with perhaps $15 million in its first three days and $50 million overall. Pass.
And now, a few words about this weekend's three limited-release films:
The Kids Are All Right ($6 Ult) – No, it's not a film involving The Who. This is a comedy from director Lisa Cholodenko (High Art), and it its easily my PTA pick of the week. Much like Cyrus and Winter's Bone – both of which cleaned up in PTA points – Kids was a big hit at Sundance. It's being released in only seven theaters, which is an optimum number if you are chasing PTA.
The film centers on a lesbian couple, Jules (Julianne Moore) and Nic (Annette Bening), who have two children (Alice in Wonderland's Mia Wasikowska, Josh Hutcherson) that were conceived through artificial insemination. However, when the children, unbeknownst to their moms, contact the sperm bank with the purpose of tracking down their biological father (a hip organic farmer played by Mark Ruffalo), their lives change radically.
This film has gotten tremendous reviews (15/16 at RT), and I predict that it will not only win the PTA crown this weekend, but it will hold on for at least one more week's worth of points next weekend. It's got a good Rating (7.0/339 votes), too, so there's that. It's pretty expensive ($6) for a limited-release films, but it could be well worth it.
[Rec] 2 ($4 Ult) – For those of you not familiar with the first film in this series, look no further than Quarantine, the hastily-made American "version" which was shoved into theaters two years ago. By all accounts a much-inferior film to the original [Rec], a Spanish film that got pretty good reviews, the plot of Quarantine was much the same: shot on a hand-held camera, the story followed a group of cops, fireman and reporters as they investigated an incident at an apartment building, a situation that grew more and more horrific as it turned out that not only were the visitors were in the middle of a viral outbreak that caused its victims to become slavering beasts, but that the government had ordered a total clamp-down from the outside... no one gets out alive.
Having seen the trailer for the sequel, it looks like more of the same, only soldiers are involved... that and it looks like one of those first-person video games. It, too, has gotten pretty good critical reviews (22/31 at RT, 6.8 Rating at IMDb), and because it is only being released in five theaters this Friday, it has a definite shot at some PTA. For $4, you could certainly do worse.
Winnebago Man ($3 Ult) – This is a documentary from director Ben Steinbauer that focuses on a man named Jack Rebney. If you don't know who that is, then you have apparently not watched his exploits on YouTube. You see, Jack used to make sales videos selling Winnebago motor homes, but it turns out he had quite an anger management problem, and was prone to protracted bursts of profanity. Somehow, copies of Jack's outbursts became a viral hit on YouTube, and the man became an Internet celebrity known as “The Angriest Man in the World”. What Steinbauer does besides chronicling Rebney's rise to fame is to track the actual man down, to find out how his celebrity has affected his life, and to find out if age has mellowed him. (Short answer: it hasn't.)
This film has gotten rave reviews at various film festivals, and it too has a very impressive RT score (100% on 5/5). According to the film's official site, it is premiering on only one screen this Friday (in New York), with additional theaters showcasing it across the country in the ensuing weeks. I don't know, folks. Everything about it points to it being a winner. But again, there's a lot going on this week. I certainly wouldn't blame you if you took it. Or not.
My predictions for the weekend of July 2-4, 2010:
1. Despicable Me - $32 million
2. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $28 million
3. The Last Airbender - $20 million
4. Toy Story 3 - $17 million
5. Predators - $15 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, three more films to talk about as we careen our way into mid-July, including: The Sorcerer's Apprentice, a Disney film starring Nicolas Cage and suddenly-hot ticket Jay Baruchel; Inception, the latest brain-bending project from the mind of Dark Knight director Christopher Nolan; and limited-release film The Wild Hunt.
Later!
Shrykespeare