To borrow from the vocabulism of George Bush, did I seriously misunderestimate Alice in Wonderland. I honestly didn’t think that the bizarreness of the plot would appeal to such a wide range of moviegoers, but I guess the Disney mystique more than made up for that. Beating the previous spring record of $70.8 million held by 300, Alice manages to outgross every movie thus far in 2010 in only its FIRST THREE DAYS. Holy Hannah.
There are nine films coming out on March 12th, which I believe is a personal record for me during my tenure as a column writer. After only two last week, one can only wonder how the Top 5 and PTA points will be dispersed this weekend. I honestly don’t believe, given this past weekend’s numbers, whether any of the nine films has what it takes to dethrone the latest Burton/Depp blockbuster, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any potential diamonds in the proverbial rough.
First, off, I’ll mention that Stolen Lives (aka Stolen), which was supposed to have bowed this past weekend, was bumped up to this weekend. It will be opening in New York only, with an additional Los Angeles opening scheduled for next week. It is still only $3 in the March Ultimate leagues, but now that it has some ferocious competition for those PTA points, I would say ignore it, if only for the terrible 5.0 User Rating. Okay, one down, eight to go.
There are four film scheduled for wide release this Friday, and the only one with any big-money potential at all is Green Zone, an action/thriller from Universal re-teaming the potent combination of director Paul Greengrass, the man behind the two Bourne Identity sequels, with the star of that explosive trilogy, Matt Damon. And though the trailer promises an equal amount of action in Green Zone, it also looks to be more politically diverse and multi-layered a story than the Bourne films were.
For those not in the know, the “Green Zone” is the common name for the International Zone of Iraq, a ten-square-kilometer area in central Baghdad that is the hub of international presence in the war-torn country. This was the setting for “Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq’s Green Zone”, an award-winning non-fiction bestseller penned by Indian-American journalist Rajiv Chandrasekaran.
The plot, during the U.S.-led occupation of Baghdad in 2003, Chief Warrant Officer Roy Miller (Damon) are sent to find hidden stockpiles of WMD’s, but instead finds an elaborate cover-up that subverts their mission at every turn. Torn between operations between the agendas of a Pentagon intelligence operative (Greg Kinnear) and a veteran CIA agent (Brendan Gleeson), Miller must discover the truth that could stop the veritable tension in the region from escalating out of control.
I’m sure you all know just how successful the Bourne series was. When you re-couple Greengrass and Damon, and throw in screenwriter Brian Helgeland (L.A. Confidential, Mystic River), you have a story that can’t help but be taut, tense and extremely entertaining. Set to debut in roughly 3,000 theaters, Green Zone looks to be easily the biggest adult-themed action film until summer. But will that make it a hit?
For $16 in Ultimate, I honestly don’t know if it is a worthy pick. It won’t do well enough to beat Alice in Wonderland's second week, but it should easily come in at #2 with around $30 million. I predict eight Top 5 points, three PTA, about $80 in total receipts and a very good User Rating, around 7.5 (it currently sits at 7.6 with over 300 votes). But $16 is a steep price (and is even steeper, at $17, in Box Office), and I don’t know if I, personally, would take the risk. Race to Witch Mountain did okay (but not stellar) on this weekend last year, and I think there are better picks to be had for the same amount of money.
Up next we have Remember Me, a romantic drama from Summit Entertainment starring Twilight hunk Robert Pattinson as Tyler Hawkins, a rebellious college student in New York who has been on the outs with his stringent father (Pierce Brosnan, appearing in his third film in less than a month) since his brother’s suicide. He runs afoul of a policeman (Chris Cooper) during a “wrong place, wrong time” altercation, and things get worse when he starts falling for a classmate named Ally (Lost’s Emilie de Ravin), who just happens to be the cop’s daughter. Ooh, awkward.
Dear John was a big hit on its opening weekend, going down in history as the film to finally dethrone Avatar, but despite Pattinson’s allure with teenage girls, there is no way that Remember Me will do as well. First off, it’ll be shown in only about 2,000 theaters; secondly, I’ve barely seen any advertising for it at all; and third, it just doesn’t look that good. I’ve only seen one review for this film, and it was negative, calling the film “flakey”, with an “ill-conceived, dragged-out ending that overshadows the film’s flimsy premise”.
For $8 in Ultimate ($9 in Box Office), I just don’t see Remember Me bringing in much more than $12 million, which I figure won’t place it any higher than #4. Two Top 5 points, no PTA and a middling User Rating are not enough to spend its price tag on, plain and simple. Not for a film that, despite its title, will even be remembered a month from now.
Far more likely to make a splash is She’s Out of My League, which has been much better advertised, and is being given a much wider release platform, at roughly 2,700 locations. It is an R-rated comedy from Paramount and DreamWorks, and it stars Jay Baruchel (who is also the lead voice in DreamWorks’ latest animated film, How to Train Your Dragon, which opens in two weeks) as Kirk, a lowly Pittsburgh airport worker whose sole goal in life is to get back together with his evil ex-GF (Lindsay Sloane).
Then one day he meets Molly (Alice Eve), who he and his friends describe as a “Hard 10” (which, incidentally, was the original title of the film), and he seems very surprised when a hottie like here would be interested in dating a shy, nervous nerd like him. But when you combine his insecurities – of which there are many – along with the incredulity of everyone around them, can such a relationship actually sustain, even in the movies?
Well, “Beauty and the Geek” has been done before, and it can be a very engaging story if done right. Whether She’s Out Of My League can climb that mountain remains to be seen. But I have talked to a lot of people, and many of them are interested in this film (or at the very least, not ready to dismiss it out of hand). So I will therefore predict a #3 finish for it, bringing in roughly $16 million for its first three days. It’s inexpensively priced ($6 in Ultimate, $7 in Box Office), so I think it could be a good bargain, gleaning three or four Top 5 points and $40 million. The User Rating won’t be terrific, but it probably won’t be horrible either.
Fourth up is Our Family Wedding, a family comedy from Fox Searchlight. It stars Forest Whitaker and Carlos Mencia as fathers destined to bump heads when two of their respective kids (Lance Gross and America Ferrera) get engaged. Directed by Rick Famuyiwa (The Wood), it will be bowing in just over 1,500 theaters this Friday.
What can I say? This movie looks as cliché-ridden as it gets. You have the usual wedding clichés, as well as African-American comedy clichés, Hispanic comedy clichés, clash-of-culture clichés, and… a goat who OD’s on Viagra. No, that last part is not made up. Just watch the trailer (if you dare) and see for yourself... if you dare.
Fox Searchlight has put out some very good critically-praiseworthy films in the last year (Crazy Heart, Fantastic Mr. Fox), but it has also put out some severe duds (Amelia, Miss March, Gentleman Broncos). And since I don’t see Our Family Wedding vying for any awards, I think that its outlook is not promising.
I daresay an opening of $10 million is as optimistic as I can be. It may come in at #5, but it won’t go higher. I certainly wouldn’t spend $7 (in either leagues) for this, a film that will give you one Top 5 point (tops, perhaps not even that), no PTA, $18 million total and a User Rating around 4.0. Stay far, far away from this bomb.
And now, a bit about the four limited-release films coming out on March 12th (apart from Stolen Lives):
Madeo (Mother), $4 Ult, $2 BO – This is probably the best of the group. A Korean crime drama directed by Joon-ho Bong, Madeo was shown at a host of noteworthy film festivals, including Cannes, Toronto and New York, and was Korea’s entry for Best Foreign Film at the Oscars. It tells the story of Hye-ja, a ginseng vendor and devoted mother, who becomes distraught when her mentally-ill son is arrested on circumstantial evidence for the brutal murder of a high school girl. In her quest to prove his innocence, Hye-ja uncovers a world of secrets all on her own.
To put it mildly, critical praise for Madeo has been through the roof. It only has three professional reviews at RT (all positive), and has been nominated – and won – several awards. Its current User Rating is a stellar 8.1 with over 1,400 votes, so for its small price tag, you’ll be helping yourself in at least one category. And depending on its theater count, it could easily get #1 in the PTA race on this crowded weekend. (I'll hopefully be posting Chien's review of this movie on my site very soon.)
Tales From the Script, $3 Ult, $1 BO – You can’t ever count out a documentary, particularly one about the process of film-making. Or, to be more accurate, film writing. Director Peter Hanson cobbles together bits of interviews with some of Hollywood’s best and most prolific screenwriters, including William Goldman (Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, All the President’s Men), Shane Black (the Lethal Weapon movies), Paul Schrader (Raging Bull) as well as directors John Carpenter and Frank Darabont, among many others.
Though not for everyone, it would appear to be an excellent choice for anyone with aspirations to be a screenwriter. It showcases the ups and downs of the profession, including the horrors associated with having your work mutilated and bastardized by Hollywood so-and-sos. It, too, has nothing but positive reviews on RT (three of them) and a magnificent User Rating (9.3 but with only 26 votes), and it, too was showcased at numerous (though lesser) festivals. For $3, even if it craps out on PTA, it won’t be a futile waste of resources.
Children of Invention, $2 Ult, $1 BO – And… another film festival critical darling. The kudos that this film received are too numerous to mention (check out its Wikipedia page for that), and it, too, is three-for-three on RT. It tells the story of Elaine Cheng (Cindy Cheung), a divorced mother of two small children, who in trying to make a better life for herself and her family, gets unknowingly involved in an illegal pyramid scheme and then disappears.
Currently boasting a User Rating of 7.1 (with 96 votes), Children of Invention could quite easily come out of nowhere and snag a few PTA points. It’s more of a gamble than the last two films I mentioned, but it could be a surprise winner. I guarantee you, very few people will pick it, so be the first on your block to do so!
The Exploding Girl, $2 Ult, $1 BO – Well, if there is one sour apple in the bunch, it’s probably this one. Despite the fact that it won the Producers Award at the Independent Spirit Awards this past week, as well as Best Actress for Zoe Kazan at Tribeca, as well as numerous acclaims from other sources (mentioned in the trailer), I just don’t feel the same vibe for this title that I have from the other films this week.
Kazan plays Ivy, a young epileptic who must balance her feelings between her new boyfriend (Hunter Canning) and a childhood friend (Mark Rendall) who is staying with her during their summer break from college. Though some might call it a thought-provoking character piece, it just seems to lack the same oomph that the other limited-release films this week do. I could be wrong, but its current Rating (6.3 with about 100 votes) and RT score (1 out of 4 good reviews at RT) tell me otherwise.
My predictions for the weekend of March 12-14, 2010:
1. Alice in Wonderland – $61 million
2. Green Zone – $30 million
3. She’s Out of my League – $16 million
4. Remember Me – $11 million
5. Our Family Wedding - $10 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only five films to talk about as I tackle the films of March 19th, which are: The Bounty Hunter, a comedy starring Gerard Butler and Jennifer Aniston; Diary of a Wimpy Kid, a kiddie comedy starring Zach Gordon as a youngster dealing with the horrors of middle school; Repo Men, a gory actioner starring Jude Law and Forest Whitaker as two friends whose job it is to repossess human organs once their owners become delinquent on their payments; as well as limited-release features Greenberg and Vincere.
Later!
Shrykespeare
Announcement: "Stolen Lives", which was scheduled for release on 3/5, has been pushed back one week to 3/12. Though many players may not have picked it, it does change the strategy of the game. If it had been released on 3/5, it would have been guaranteed a few PTA points, but now that it is being released on the much more crowded weekend of 3/12, it no longer has that guarantee.
Also, "Leaves of Grass" was moved from 3/26 to 4/2, so if anyone has it on any of their January slates, it will need to be replaced.
Shrykespeare
It’s the end of an era. Not only did this past weekend mark the end of the December leagues, it also marked the end of the very last leagues that I did by hand, something I was forced to do after FM folded. Hard to believe it was just over a year that I had to keep this up, because God knows, it sure felt a lot longer sometimes. But I want you all to know that it was a pleasure to do it, no matter how many withering glares my wife gave me while I was pounding away at my Standings Pages. The Fantaverse is so worth it.
Of course, now that we are into March, Avatar has now officially disappeared over the horizon in our rear-view mirror. James Cameron’s monster finished with 45 Top 5 points, 45 PTA points, a User Rating of 8.5 and over $706 million. Just unbelievable, especially when you consider that it is STILL in the Top 5! But for the purposes of game play, it is now merely a memory.
The first weekend of March officially kicks off the spring season, the two-month stretch sandwiched between the uncertainty of post-Christmas winter and glorious big-budget summer. One year ago, Watchmen entered theaters with a mountain of hype, a geyser of hope and a wellspring of fan-boy fanaticism. Sadly, it failed to strike a chord with the average moviegoer, with its prodigious length (163 minutes), its rating (a heavy R for violence, gore and sex) and its overblown premise. Such a pity, as I find the story to be quite engaging. Still, those of us that chose it for our slates regretted it almost immediately.
This spring’s leadoff hitter has only two things common with Watchmen: it too represents the “fantasy” genre, and it too has probably just as many question marks. But other than that, they are as different as night and day. I am, of course, referring to Alice in Wonderland, which just happens to be the 394th collaborative effort between director Tim Burton and Hollywood A-lister Johnny Depp. (Just kidding, it’s actually only their seventh, but it seems like a lot more, doesn’t it?)
Based on the novels “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland” and “Through the Looking-Glass” penned by Lewis Carroll nearly a century and a half ago, Alice in Wonderland seems to be tailor-made for the Burton/Depp combo… it’s a truly bizarre story, filled with bizarre circumstances and equally bizarre characters. Perhaps the only normal character is Alice (played by relatively inexperienced Australian actress Mia Wasikowska), a 19-year-old girl from Victorian England who accidentally falls down a hole while chasing an enigmatic white rabbit. She finds herself back in Wonderland, a place that she had visited ten years before but can’t remember the details.
Wonderland is now under the rule of the tyrannical Red Queen (Helena Bonham carter, appearing in her sixth STRAIGHT Burton film), who terrorizes her subjects with the Jabberwock, a dragon-like creature that Alice must slay to end her rule. Depp, of course, plays the legendary Mad Hatter, throwing himself into the part in a way that only he can. There are a bevy of other famous faces in the cast, including Anne Hathaway, Crispin Glover, Steven Fry and Michael Sheen.
I mentioned that there were question marks surrounding this film, but in my mind, it’s only because of the bizarre-ness of the story, something that may be off-putting to people looking for a nice simply story, as well as those who think that the Depp/Burton marriage may be played out. But on the other hand, it’s Disney, it’s rated PG, it comes in at a crisp 109 minutes, and, lest we forget, it is about to kick Avatar to the curb in most of the 3D and 3D IMAX facilities in the country, a spot it will occupy, I figure, for three weeks (after which How to Train Your Dragon will come calling.)
Alice in Wonderland is estimated to be coming out in 3,400 theaters or so, but I have no idea if that number includes the aforementioned 3D and IMAX theaters. Avatar has well and truly run its course, and I think that those who made it the #1 film of all time are ready for something new and colorful, and this film could easily fit the bill.
Therefore, I am going to “conservatively” predict that Alice in Wonderland will open with $46 million its first three days, and will glean eleven Top 5 points, six PTA and a User Rating around 7.4, on its way to a total take of about $120 million. For $32 in the March Ultimate leagues ($34 in Box Office), that’s a pretty fair trade, though I still think How to Train Your Dragon is a slightly safer pick, given that DreamWorks is on a pretty good roll and the marketing blitz for that film has already started.
The only other wide-release film this weekend is Brooklyn’s Finest, a gritty cop/crime drama directed by Antoine Fuqua, the man behind the camera for Training Day, arguably one of the best cop dramas of the last decade. One of that film’s stars, Ethan Hawke, also stars in Brooklyn’s Finest, along with Richard Gere, Don Cheadle and Wesley Snipes (making HIS first big-screen appearance in six years… whatever happened with that whole tax-evasion thingy? Does anyone know?)
I’d elaborate on the plot, but some of the professional reviews I’ve read seem to agree that said plot is sketchy at best (30% Fresh on 3/10 at RT), so I’ll just give an overview. Basically, the film follows the lives of three police officers over the course of one harrowing week, as they attempt to keep their wits (and their covers) about them as they try to foil a huge drug operation. Gere plays Eddie Dugan, a veteran cop mere days from retirement; Hawke plays Sal Proceda, a “cop on the edge” who is desperate to find a way to support his large family; and Cheadle plays Clarence “Tango” Butler, currently deep undercover with his prison buddy Caz (Snipes), one of the city’s most infamous drug dealers.
This film has been postponed several times to get to this point, and I can’t help but wonder if that will have a negative effect on the outcome of this film. The good news for you is, it’s only $8 in Ultimate, which could very well buy you four or five Top 5 points, four PTA and a tremendous User Rating (which is a polar opposite to its RT score: it currently sits at 8.5 with well over 600 votes, which means it probably won’t drop more than a point during its run). It is poised very well; in a week that opens up a league, it will score very well in all categories. I don’t think it’s worth its $7 price tag in Box Office, however, as I doubt it will end up pulling much more than $28 million overall.
About the only reason I could think of for recommending this week’s only limited release film, Stolen Lives (aka Stolen), is the fact that because it is one of only three films debuting this week, it is guaranteed to get at least three PTA points… that is, assuming that its distributor, IFC, ends up reporting its numbers at all. Still, $3 for a guaranteed 3 PTA points would seem like a pretty sweet deal.
What a shame the actual movie looks like a rehashed mess. Jon Hamm (Mad Men) stars as Tom Adkins, a detective who becomes obsessed with work after his ten-year-old son goes missing. He copes by throwing himself into the case of a young boy whose skeletal remains were unearthed after having been murdered 50 years earlier. Hoping against hope that solving this murder will lead him on the path to redemption, he begins to suspect that the murdered boy and his son are somehow connected. Josh Lucas, Rhona Mitra and James Van Der Beek co-star.
Like I said, you are guaranteed three PTA points by choosing this film, but be warned: you’ll also be inheriting Stolen's terrible User Rating, which currently sits at 5.0 (with only 30 votes, but I’d be surprised if it goes up at all). Pick your poison, I guess.
My predictions for the weekend of March 5-7, 2010:
1. Alice in Wonderland - $46 million
2. Shutter Island - $13 million
3. Brooklyn’s Finest - $12 million
4. Cop Out - $10 million
5. Avatar - $8 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll have a very busy week, with no less than EIGHT new titles to talk about, all coming out on March 12th, including: Green Zone, an action drama re-teaming the potent combination of Matt Damon and his Bourne Identity director, Paul Greengrass; Remember Me, a romantic drama starring Twilight hunk Robert Pattinson and Lost’s Emilie de Ravin; Our Family Wedding, a screwball comedy starring about two families whose cultures clash head-on when two of their members decide to marry; She’s Out of My League, a comedy starring Jay Baruchel as a geeky loner who is dumbfounded when a gorgeous hottie asks him out; as well as four limited-release films.
Later!
Shrykespeare
"MacGruber" has been bumped, from 4/23 to 5/21, where it will square off against "Shrek Forever After"
"Sex and the City 2" has moved up one day, and will open on 5/27 instead of 5/28.
Shrykespeare
Attention all players: the following titles are now available in all leagues.
3/12 - Children of Invention - $2 Ult, $1 BO
3/26 - Ca$h - $2 Ult, $1 BO (Sean Bean, Chris Hemsworth)
3/26 - Leaves of Grass - $3 Ult, $1 BO (Edward Norton, Susan Sarandon, Keri Russell)
4/2 - Thorn in the Heart - $4 Ult, $1 BO (Documentary by Michael Gondry)
4/16 - Handsome Harry - $3 Ult, $1 BO (Jamey Sheridan, Steve Buscemi, Aidan Quinn)
4/16 - The Joneses - $3 Ult (all), $2 BO (Feb), $1 BO (Mar)
5/7 - Badmaash Company - $2 Ult, $1 BO (Hindi)
5/14 - Princess Kaiulani - $2 Ult, $1 BO (Barry Pepper, Will Patton, Q'orianka Kilcher)
Shrykespeare