Much like this exact weekend three years ago, Liam Neeson proved to be too much for the competition, as The Grey easily held sway by pulling in $20 million, very similar numbers to those that Taken put up in 2009. One For the Money was able to scare up enough interest to manage third place, whereas Man on a Ledge was able to eke out one lone Top 5 point for itself by underwhelming with only $8 million. On the PTA front, A Separation finished in first place again, bringing its total to a whopping twenty PTA points, which is more than any other film from 2011. (We Need to Talk About Kevin, which finished at #2, is now at seventeen PTA points and counting, which tie it with The Help for second place.)

And just like that, one month of 2012 is in the books. Overall, it was a very impressive month (for a January), with more than a few surprise hits (The Devil Inside, Contraband, Underworld: Awakening, The Grey) and misses (Beauty and the Beast, Haywire, Man on a Ledge). February hopes to pick up where January left off… even though it is a shorter month, it is also a busier one, with fourteen wide-release movies scheduled to hit theaters (compared to January’s ten, and way more than March's current total of seven).

As I’ve said, 2012 has built a lot of momentum at the box office, but it is inevitable that there will be weekends that just aren’t as good. I expect the weekend of Friday, February 3rd, to be one of those weekends. The train may slow down a might, but it won’t jump the track, as evidenced by the fact that there are four potential moneymakers coming the week after. The film getting the widest release this week is Fox’s Chronicle, a sci-fi film that is the latest to feature a mostly unknown cast and be shot documentary-style. It is the big-screen debut for director Josh Trank, and stars Michael B. Jordan, Alex Russell and Dane DeHaan.

Chronicle tells the story of three high school friends who make an incredible discovery of some kind in a mysterious crater. Soon after, the trio develops superhuman abilities, such as invulnerability, telekinesis and flight. Of course, when you suddenly give superpowers to those without the maturity to use them for anything but selfish or childish purposes, things are bound to escalate, and when one of them starts using his powers to commit destructive acts…

Chronicle will be debuting this Friday in roughly 2,800 locations. It is reasonably priced at $9 in the February Ultimate leagues ($8 in Box Office), but I can’t picture it debuting with much more than $11 million in its first three days, which may or may not be good enough for second place depending on how far The Grey drops in its second week. In all, I envision about three Top 5 points, $28 million and a Rating around 6.3. Since it is appearing in February’s lead-off week, it is guaranteed of no fewer than two PTA points, so there’s that. But it’s still not enough to recommend it.

It was only a matter of time before Daniel Radcliffe began his post-Harry Potter career, and this weekend marks the next chapter in his acting career. It is a horror movie entitled The Woman in Black, from CBS Films, and it is based on the novel of the same name by Susan Hill, published in 1983.

Radcliffe plays Arthur Kipps, a young lawyer in early 20th-century London who travels to a small town on the eastern coast of England in order to settle the estate of a recently-deceased woman. When he arrives, he discovers that the townsfolk have taken to barricading their children indoors, as if deathly afraid of some unseen foe. Arthur hasn’t stayed in the woman’s old, creepy house for long before he senses the eerie presence of the “woman in black”, the ghost of a scorned woman who tragically lost her son and now bears a terrible curse: that every time she is seen, a child dies. Ciaran Hinds and Janet McTeer also co-star.

Looking down the lineup, The Woman in Black would seem to be the last “pure” horror movie for quite a long time. I would also bet that Potter fans will at least be curious to witness the first post-Harry career choice for the former boy wizard. Add all that up (plus a 2,700-theater release platform), and I think The Woman in Black will easily grab first place in its first three days.

Curiously, this film is priced at only $8 in both the February Ultimate and Box Office leagues. That’s pretty darn cheap for a film that will probably earn no fewer than six Top 5 points, four PTA and $40 million. It’s been well-reviewed so far, so look for it to have a pretty solid Rating (for a horror flick), around 6.8. In the February leagues, I think The Woman in Black is easily worth its miniscule price tag.

Universal has two films coming out in the next two weeks. They have heavily advertised Safe House, the lateset Denzel Washington action/drama that debuts next week. This week, however, they are fielding Big Miracle, but they are only doing so into a paltry 1,900 theaters. This romantic drama is the latest from director Ken Kwapis (He’s Just Not That Into You, License to Wed), and it features the stars of those two movies, Drew Barrymore and John Krasinski.

Based on true events and taking place in 1988 in the remote Alaskan town of Point Barrow, Big Miracle chronicles the international effort known as Operation Breakthrough, wherein the townsfolk, the media, the military and anyone who possibly could help, pitched in to rescue a family of three gray whales that were trapped in the ice. The operation involved, basically, cutting holes in the ice all the way to the Pacific Ocean. Krasinski and Barrymore play a news reporter and a Greenpeace volunteer who bond over the event. The supporting cast includes Kristen Bell, Stephen Root, Ted Danson, Dermot Mulroney, Rob Riggle and Tim Blake Nelson.

It’s a sweet story, I suppose, inspirational and all that, perhaps even worthy of a big-screen adaptation. But the fact that Universal is doing such a half-assed job promoting it gives me pause. It will run you $9 (in both February leagues), but for that, I think you’ll only get two Top 5 points, three PTA (max), and a $9 million opening on its way to a mere $24 million overall. As a pick for your slates, Big Miracle looks like a whale-sized bust.

This weekend’s only limited-release feature is Perfect Sense, which will be debuting in one lone theater this Friday. It was previously shown at Sundance last year, and it won the award for Best New British Feature at last year’s Edinburgh Film Festival. Having been shot almost exclusively in various parts of Scotland, director David Mackenzie (Mister Foe) has two very recognizable actors playing the two main characters: Ewan McGregor and Eva Green.

Ewan and Eva play Michael and Susan, a chef and an epidemiologist who fall in love just as the world faces a potentially devastating crisis… namely, a virus which robs people of their sensory perceptions. And it’s a good thing I was able to find this information on Wikipedia and RT, because the trailer seems to obscure that little detail. The film also stars Connie Nielson and Ewen Bremner, who, ironically, appeared in Trainspotting with McGregor sixteen years ago and has appeared in films only sparingly since.

One-theater release platforms always make me nervous, because, as history has shown, it could very well end up winning the PTA crown, or it could just as easily tank and finish with only two points (the fewest number of points it could end up with). It’s gotten very ho-hum reviews so far (14/27 positive on RT), but has a quite decent Rating (7.1 with over 3,000 votes), so there’s that. For only $4 in Ultimate, you could probably do a lot worse.

My predictions for the weekend of February 3-5, 2012:

1. The Woman in Black - $16 million
2. The Grey - $11 million
3. Chronicle - $11 million
4. Big Miracle - $9 million
5. Underworld: Awakening - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four new films take center stage, and every one of them has the potential to do at least $50 million in total receipts, and they are: Safe House, an action thriller featuring Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds; The Vow, a romantic drama starring Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams; Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, a family-adventure film starring Dwayne Johnson and Michael Caine (really!); and finally, the 3D re-release of Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Terry Jones (Monty Python) (70 on 2/1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Road to Perdition, Greenberg) (50 on 2/5)

Later!

Shrykespeare

Underworld: Awakening and Red Tails continued January’s streak of impressive debuts, bringing in $25 million and $19 respectively to take 1-2 at the box office this past weekend. Meanwhile, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close expanded wide enough to grab fourth place, and new actioner Haywire just beat out Beauty and the Beast for fifth. On the PTA front, A Separation and We Need to Talk About Kevin continue to dominate.

It’s hard to believe, but we are coming up on the end of the first month of the year. Sure went fast, didn’t it? If February can pick up where January left off, it should be a very interesting and competitive year. Before we get to February, however, we have four more films to talk about, all of which will debut this Friday, January 27th.

This weekend is tough to prognosticate. It’s rare that a weekend will present itself where not one of the four major studios (Paramount, Universal, Fox, Warners Bros) has a film coming out, but this weekend just happens to be one of those weekends. And since it looks like all three of this weekend’s wide-release films will get about the same release platform (between 2,500 and 3,000 theaters), any one of them could theoretically bust out on top.

The first film I’ll talk about is One For the Money, an action comedy from Lionsgate. Based on the first of three novels published in the 90’s by author Janet Evanovich, One For the Money stars Katherine Heigl as Stephanie Plum, a bounty hunter that is “a spunky combination of Nancy Drew and Dirty Harry”. (In other words, the opposite of Domino Harvey.) Out of work and desperate for cash, she chases down bail jumpers for her disreputable cousin Vinnie (Patrick Fischler).

Then a high-stakes assignment comes down the pike: Joe Morelli (Jason O’Mara), an ex-cop who is wanted for murder, who also just happens to be the same guy who seduced and dumped Stephanie in high school. In the midst of tracking down Joe, Stephanie has to deal with meddling family, a tendency for witnesses to die when she gets too close, and the realization that the case against her old flame just doesn’t add up. Debbie Reynolds, John Leguizamo and Fisher Stevens co-star.

Despite Katherine Heigl’s poor film choices post-Grey’s Anatomy, this film actually looks quite fun, even though it’s basically a reverse-gender version of The Bounty Hunter, which earned $67 million in a March release two years ago. It is the second major film for director Julie Anne Robinson, whose debut, The Last Song, coincidentally, made about the same amount of money at almost exactly the same time.

One For the Money will run you $14 in both January leagues, and for that much… I just can’t recommend it. Yes, it could very well pull $20 million in its first three days, but I just don’t see it happening. There’s no early word on how good or bad the film is, but I have seen very little advertising for it (not that that means anything), and until Heigl proves otherwise, I just don’t see her as a viable leading actress. I predict a $10 million opening, one Top 5, no PTA and $32 million. Pass.

From Summit Entertainment comes Man on a Ledge, the first non-documentary outing for director Asger Leth (Ghosts of Cite Soleil). It is a dramatic thriller starring Sam Worthington (The Debt) as Nick Cassidy, an escaped felon who feigns a suicide attempt by climbing out onto the ledge of a New York apartment building. Of course, this is a classic case of misdirection – while the eyes of the entire city are on Nick, his brother (Jamie Bell) attempts to carry out a massive heist of his own in order to prove Nick was set up by a ruthless, sneaky businessman (Ed Harris). Nick’s only other ally may come in the form of Lydia Mercer, a detective sent to talk him down, but who he must attempt to convince of his innocence.

Anthony Mackie, Kyra Sedgwick, Edward Burns, Titus Welliver and Genesis Rodriguez (the next major Hispanic hottie, mark my words) co-star. Not a bad cast, to be sure, and the trailer calls attention to the fact that Man on a Ledge was co-produced by Lorenzo di Bonaventura, whose resume also includes such high-powered actioners as Salt, Red, all three Transformers films and both G.I. Joe movies (including the one coming this summer). I like the premise, which seems to take its inspiration from films such as Inside Man (which I liked) and Phone Booth (which I… didn’t). I also like Sam Worthington, who hasn’t QUITE gotten over the hump to the point where he can carry a film on his own, despite the fact that he played the lead character in the must successful movie of all time.

I will predict a $14 million opening for Man on a Ledge, one its way to seven Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating around 7.2 and $48 million. That is by no means a certainty, and for $12 in Ultimate leagues ($11 in Box Office), I would do some serious research into how well more learned prognosticatory pundits than myself predict this film will do before I put it on my roster.

It was exactly three years ago that Liam Neeson proved that despite his age (he’ll turn 60 this year), he still has a lot of life left in him, punching and shooting his way to over $140 million in the smash hit Taken. Since then, he has continued to be cast in action roles, including The A-Team ($77 million) and last year’s Unknown ($63 million). Suffice it to say, Liam still has considerable drawing power.

Yes, The Grey could probably be classified as an action thriller, though it’s nothing like any he’s done before. Reuniting with director Joe Carnahan (The A-Team) as well as that film’s producers, the talented Scott Brothers (Ridley and Tony). Neeson plays Mr. Ottway, one of a group of men who work as oil-rig roughnecks in Alaska. Tragically, their plane crashes in the wilderness as they are being flown back to civilization… and then their problems REALLY begin.

As if surviving a plane crash was traumatic enough, Ottway must find a way to gather himself and the survivors and get them to safety, while battling injuries, the freezing cold, and a vicious pack of rogue wolves that would just as soon have them for dinner. Dermot Mulroney, James Badge Dale, Frank Grillo and Joe Anderson co-star.

Open Road films (whose last film, Killer Elite, underwhelmed) has done a great job advertising The Grey. It’s been a while since we’ve had a good man-vs.-nature thriller, and if anyone can sell this premise to a wide audience, it’s probably Neeson. For that reason, I will pick The Grey to win the weekend, though not with a huge number. Say, $15 million, on its way to eight Top 5, four PTA, a Rating around 7.6 and $54 million. Cheaply priced at $10 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), I would easily recommend this film for your slates more than either One for the Money or Man on a Ledge.

This week’s only limited-release film is Declaration of War, which not only was one of the opening-night entries during last year’s Cannes Film Festival’s Critics Week, it was also France’s submission for Best Foreign Film at this year’s Oscars. (It didn’t make the final shortlist, however.) It follows a young couple named Romeo and Juliette (yeah, I know), who are played by Jérémie Elkaïm and Valérie Donzelli, who not only are the stars of the film but also co-wrote it (and Donzelli directed).

Though the parallels between this film’s plot and Shakespeare are tenuous at best, there is a tragic element: namely, that the couple discover that their newborn son Adam has been stricken with cancer. As their families gather together to support them, Romeo and Juliette confront the ordeal together as a form of warfare (hence the title). From what I’ve read, the film is quite uplifiting, which surprised me. Donzelli uses many techniques, including exceptional acting performances from her cast as well as music (I really like the use of Laurie Anderson in the trailer) to do so.

Declaration of War is opening in six theaters this Friday. It only costs $3 in Ultimate leagues, which would seem to be a damn sight smarter a pick than last week’s overhyped Coriolanus, which only managed three PTA points for $7. With only three films coming next week, this film could hang on for a second week. None of the January movies are PTA giants, so it would not surprise me if Declaration of War ended up being the PTA champ of the month. French movies tend to do quite well in PTA. Not all of them, but many of them.


My predictions for the weekend of January 27-29, 2012:

1. The Grey - $15 million
2. Man on a Ledge - $14 million
3. Underworld: Awakening - $11 million
4. One For the Money - $10 million
5. Red Tails - $9 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we enter the second month of 2012 with three films, all set to debut on February 3rd: The Woman in Black, a gothic horror film starring Daniel Radcliffe; Big Miracle, a romantic drama featuring Drew Barrymore; and Chronicle, a superhero drama starring Michael Kelly and Michael B. Jordan.

Later!

Shrykespeare

To the surprise of many, Mark Wahlberg was able to out-punch a Disney classic this past weekend, as Contraband sailed to an easy victory, piling up an impressive $24 million. Beauty and the Beast, back in theaters for the first time in many years, could only amass $18 million and a second-place finish. On the PTA front, the victory went to We Need to Talk About Kevin, which returned to theaters a full month after its one-week for-Oscar-consideration stint in December. Also, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and A Separation both managed to break into double-digit PTA figures as well.

Speaking of Extremely Loud, the Tom Hanks/Sandra Bullock vehicle will be going wide this week, expanding to over 2,500 locations. It’s already proven to be a fantastic pick on the PTA front (14 points!), so now we’ll see if it can be a worthy pick on the Box Office front as well. It will be sharing the spotlight with three other wide-release movies that make their debuts this week, as well as one limited-release film.

First up this week is Underworld: Awakening, an action/horror film from Sony/Screen Gems and Swedish directors Måns Mårlind and Björn Stein. It is the fourth overall film in this series, following Underworld (2003), Underworld: Evolution (2006) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (2009), which was actually a prequel. Kate Beckinsale, who only appeared in that segment for a few brief seconds at the end, is back in the spotlight for this fourth segment, which is advertising itself as the final chapter. It is scheduled to debut in just shy of 3,000 theaters this Friday.

Taking place six months after the events of Evolution, vampire maven Selene (Beckinsale) has been captured by humans, who have learned of the centuries-old feud between vampires and Lycans (basically, werewolves), and are now intent on wiping both ancient species out. After being cryogenically imprisoned, Selene manages to escape captivity along with a young girl named Eve (India Eisley), a vampire-werewolf hybrid that may be the key to ending the war. Stephen Rea also co-stars.

Much like the Resident Evil franchise, the numbers for the Underworld films have been consistent if not spectacular. In a January release six years ago, Evolution managed a decent $26 million opening on its way to $62 million in total receipts. Rise of the Lycans only managed $20/$45, but with Beckinsale’s name back on the marquee, as well as this being the purported “last” chapter, I expect that the numbers for Awakening will be more similar to Evolution than Rise. In all, I envision $23 million for its first three days, and will finish its run with about $58 million.

Awakening is interestingly priced at $14 in the Ultimate leagues but only $10 in the Box Office. I would definitely say it is a worthy pick in Box Office, as $50 million is most definitely within its reach. Ultimate is a harder sell, as I think it will only end up with seven Top 5 points, four PTA and a Rating in the mid-6’s. It probably won’t suffer the titanic second-week drop that The Devil Inside did (which was 76%... look for Awakening to drop more in the 55-60% range), and so I would give it a marginal thumbs-up as an Ultimate pick as well.

Up next is Red Tails, a historical drama from Fox that chronicles the formation and exploits of the Tuskegee Airmen, the first-ever African-American fighter pilot squadron to be formed, and how they made their mark during WWII. It would appear to be the same story as the 1995 HBO movie The Tuskegee Airmen, a decent outing starring Laurence Fishburne, Andre Braugher and Cuba Gooding Jr. Ironically, Gooding Jr. is back for Red Tails (albeit in a different role), so the material should be familiar enough for him.

Red Tails marks the feature-film debut for director Anthony Hemingway, who has spent the last five years as a director for many different TV shows, among other duties. If you are not familiar with the story, here it is in a nutshell: in 1944, with the war in Europe taking its toll on the Allied forces, the Pentagon was forced to resort to “unorthodox” methods to try to achieve victory, which included giving African-Americans the chance to become dogfighters for their country. Despite the not-too-subtle racism of the time or the adverse conditions they trained in, the Tuskegee Airmen ended up showing their immense courage and leaving an indelible stamp on history as well. Truly a story worthy of the silver screen, and the cast of actors includes Terrence Howard, Bryan Cranston, Nate Parker, and rap stars Method Man and Ne-Yo.

One would hope that Red Tails’ User Rating will not end up falling into the same pit that engulfs most films featuring heavily African-American casts (last week’s Joyful Noise started off with a miserable 3.2 Rating), but since The Tuskegee Airmen managed a 7.1 (not bad, even for a made-for-cable movie), I remain optimistic about that. About its box office potential, however, I’m not quite as hopeful. Given its release platform (2,500 theaters), its historical setting and the light amount of advertising I’ve seen for it, I will predict an opening of $11 million, which will be good enough for only one Top 5 point, maybe one or two PTA, and $30 million total. For $9 in the Ultimate leagues ($9 in Box Office), I think you’re better off not taking it.

I like just about everything I’ve seen thus far for Haywire, an espionage action/thriller from noteworthy director Stephen Soderbergh (Ocean’s Eleven, Traffic). From the trailers, it looks like an adrenaline-filled, brisk, kick-ass popcorn movie, with a terrific cast and hair-raising fight scenes. The early poop on the film is fantastic (90% fresh at RT), and it looks to be easily the most exciting film of early 2012 by a mile.

Making her major film debut is former model, mixed martial-arts fighter and American Gladiator Gina Carano, who stars as Mallory Kane, a covert operative hired out by her handler to perform various off-the-books duties that the government would prefer to turn a blind eye to. During a mission to Dublin, Ireland, the operation goes awry and Mallory finds out that she has been double-crossed and targeted for elimination. From there, she must use all of her considerable skills to not only make it back home, but to keep her family safe and exact revenge on those that betrayed her. The fantastic supporting cast includes Michael Fassbender, Ewan McGregor, Antonio Banderas, Michael Douglas, Bill Paxton and Channing Tatum.

From everything I’ve heard and seen so far, Haywire would appear to be everything that Salt was not… which makes it all the more sad that there isn’t a more reputable studio than Relativity distributing it. It’s been well-advertised, and between that and the great reception, I’m hoping that Haywire can overcome its limiting 2,000-theater release platform and scratch out an impressive opening weekend.

I may be overreaching, but I am going to go out on a limb and prognosticate a $14 million opening for Haywire, on its way to six Top 5 points, several PTA and a rating well above 7.0 (it’s currently a 7.5 with several hundred votes), along with $41 million overall. Would that still make it worth its price tag of $10 in Ultimate ($13 in Box Office)? Just barely. If I were you, I’d probably exercise caution and stay away from picking Haywire altogether, unless you are feeling REALLY daring.

Debuting in three locations this Friday is Coriolanus, an adaptation of the Shakespearean tragedy of the same name. It just happens to be the directorial debut of actor Ralph Fiennes, who also stars in the title role. Taking place in the modern day, Caius Martius Coriolanus plays a Roman general who, pushed on by his ambitious mother (Vanessa Redgrave), achieves the powerful position of Consul, even though he lacks the connection to the people that such an office entails, choosing instead to govern by fear. After an altercation leads to a riot, Coriolanus is stripped of his rank and banished from Rome, forcing him to ally himself with sworn enemy Tullus Aufidius (Gerard Butler) to take his revenge on his homeland. Brian Cox and Jessica Chastain also co-star.

Because it’s the first month of the year, January on the whole tends to have fewer films released within it than any other month, and January 2012 is no exception. There are only twelve films to be had for game purposes, and of those, only two are limited-release films. Films like Coriolanus are, therefore, well-placed for PTA puroses, much like Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune (12 PTA) and Barney’s Version (16 PTA) were in January of last year. Now, is Coriolanus a shoe-in for double-digits in that category? I’d say there’s a better than 50% chance.

As PTA picks go, Coriolanus is on the expensive side, priced at $7 in the Ultimate leagues, and it’s not hard to see why: it’s gotten great reviews (90% Fresh on 45/52 positive at RT), has a terrific Rating (7.5 with over 1,200 votes) that is unlikely to change much, and could easily repeat as PTA champ for in back to back weeks. I think it’s an extremely worthy pick. (Maybe not so much in Box Office, where it is priced at $4, and as I’m not sure Coriolanus will ever go wide, I probably wouldn’t pick it there.)


My predictions for the weekend of January 20-22, 2012:

1. Underworld: Awakening - $23 million
2. Haywire - $14 million
3. Beauty and the Beast (3D re-release) - $13 million
4. Contraband - $12 million
5. Red Tails - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we finish up January (wow… that month went by fast!) with four more films, all set to debut on January 27: Man on a Ledge, a dramatic thriller starring Sam Worthington; One for the Money, a crime comedy starring Katherine Heigl; The Grey, a survival drama featuring Liam Neeson; and, in limited release, Declaration of War, a French drama.

Later!

Shrykespeare

Well, how do you like that?? Despite horrible reviews (as evidenced by a 7% score on RT) and a terrible Rating (4.7 on IMDb), The Devil Inside posted the third-largest opening by a January film EVER, trailing only Cloverfield and the 1997 3D re-release of Star Wars. It easily eclipsed the record for a year’s leadoff hitter, shattering the predictions of pretty much everyone in the Fantaverse. Meanwhile, many of the December holdovers (Mission: Impossible, Sherlock Homes, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) continued to hold strong, and The Iron Lady reigned supreme as the PTA champ for the second straight week.

Exactly why did The Devil Inside go through the roof as it did? Well, probably the best explanation is because it was so well-placed: it was the first new film to go wide in almost two weeks, it was the only new film of the weekend (unless you count the expansion of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), and it was the first pure horror film to hit theaters since Paranormal Activity 3. So kudos to Paramount Pictures, who have officially gotten 2012 off to a much faster start than 2011 had.

However, don’t look for The Devil Inside to do anything spectacular this weekend. It’s commonplace for horror films to suffer the steepest drops in their second and third weekends, and that, coupled with the film’s bad word-of-mouth will probably drop it’s OW’s numbers by around 70% (if not more). And with the December films slowly waning, the door is slowly opening for the films of 2012 to take over, and there are three movies that will be debuting in wide release this Friday.

Last year, there were more films released in 3D than ever before, a trend that will continue in 2012 and beyond. It’s gotten to the point that 3D has become so commonplace now that if you are going to add a 3D element to a film, it had better be damn well worth the extra few bucks. It does seem, nowadays, that for every film that it is indeed worth donning the special glasses for the 3D experience, there are a handful of others that make you wonder why the studios even bothered. Last autumn, Disney decided to convert one of their most beloved films ever, The Lion King, to 3D and release it into just over 2,000 theaters. The response was phenomenal.

Not only did The Lion King blow its competition out of the water on its OW, pulling in an astounding $30 million, but it continued to bring in viewers through the end of the year, adding an additional $94 million to the film’s aggregate total. (With its two runs, it is now the second-highest grossing animated film of all time, behind only Shrek 2.) You had to figure that given the huge response, it was only a matter of time before Disney followed The Lion King up with another one of their more recent classics, and lo, here comes .Beauty and the Beast

It was November 1991 when the adaptation of the classic fairy tale was put into theaters. Given how famous the story is, you might be surprised to know that at no point was it ever showing in 2,000 at a given time. For this reason, it never achieved the #1 spot on any weekend (though it did nearly five months in the Top Ten). Ironically, the 2,500-theater release platform scheduled for the 3D version is the largest in the film’s history, and maybe, just maybe, it might get that #1 spot this time around.

I’m sure most of you know the story: an enchantress, disguised as a beggar, offers a handsome but callous young prince (voiced by Robby Benson) a rose in exchange for a night’s shelter. He turns her down, and she places a curse on his entire household, transforming him into a huge bestial figure and his many servants into pieces of sentient furniture or household items. The only way the curse can be broken is if the prince is able to find true love before he hits his 21st birthday, lest he remain a Beast for the rest of his life. Enter Belle (Paige O’Hara), a French lass whose beauty has come to the attention of Gaston (Richard White), whose advances she has shunned. When Belle’s father is imprisoned by the Beast, Belle offers herself in exchange… and thus begins a relationship that would become legend. The inestimable supporting cast includes Angela Lansbury, David Ogden Stiers and the late, great Jerry Orbach.

Much like The Lion King, the 3D re-release of Beauty and the Beast is very well-placed, at a time when there is little worthy or fresh competition. So the only question to ask is: can Beauty match Lion’s incredible output? Tough to say. Both films are beloved classics, eminently watchable and re-watchable by kids and adults of all ages, with Oscar-winning scores and memorable songs that make them worthy entries into the pantheon of all-time Disney greats. And while I believe that lightning can strike twice, it’s hard to imagine Beauty outdoing Lion, though I do foresee the numbers coming fairly close.

I will predict an OW of $27 million for Beauty and the Beast, followed by minimal drops in the ensuing weeks. In all, I envision ten Top 5 points, seven PTA and $76 million. For $15 in the January Ultimate leagues ($13 in Box Office), I would call this a must-have, particularly if you missed out on The Devil Inside. IMDb does not create separate pages for 3D re-releases of films, which means that the User Rating you will get is the 8.0 current attributed to it (with well over 100,000 votes), a number that is not likely to change by more than a tenth of a point. I’m not sure if any film this January that will break $75 million, but Beauty and the Beast certainly has the best chance of all of them.

From Universal comes Contraband, an action thriller from Icelandic director/producer Baltasar Kormákur (The Sea). The film stars Mark Wahlberg (who also co-produced) as Chris Farraday, an ex-criminal who gave up a life of crime long ago to start a family. However, after his brother-in-law Andy (Caleb Landry Jones) botches a drug deal for his ruthless boss, Briggs (Giovanni Ribisi), Chris is forced back into doing what he does best… smuggling contraband. Using his unique set of skills, Chris must navigate the minefield of druglords, cops and other various criminal scum in order to keep his family safe. Kate Beckinsale (who also has a movie, Underworld Awakening, opening next week), Ben Foster, Lukas Haas, J.K. Simmons and Mark’s brother Robert co-star.

Shot on location in New Orleans and Panama City, Panama, Contraband is set to bow in roughly 2,750 theaters this weekend. It’s been well-advertised, and Wahlberg is usually a pretty consistent draw, so I think that it will eke out a #2 finish this weekend over Joyful Noise (which I’ll get to in a moment), debuting with $18 million in its first three days. It will run you $11 in the Ultimate Leagues ($12 in Box Office), and for that, I think you will only get five or six Top 5 points, four PTA and a User Rating around 6.8. Not fantastic, but not horrible either.

The third film opening this Friday is Joyful Noise, a comedy-musical from Warner Bros and actor/director Todd Graff (Bandslam). It marks the return to the big screen of country music legend Dolly Parton, who was a viable star in the 80’s with films like Nine to Five, The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas and Steel Magnolias, but for whatever reason has not been in a major film since 1992’s Straight Talk. The film also stars Queen Latifah (whose last starring role was in the underwhelming Just Wright).

The story: the problems of a choir in Smalltown, U.S.A., a town hit hard by the flagging economy, compound when its long-time director unexpectedly passes away. Two strong-willed women immediately jockey for the position: Vi Rose Hill (Latiah), a single mother of two teens who believes that a traditional Gospel style, in keeping with the approval of the town’s pastor (Courtney B. Vance), is best, and the former director’s widow, G.G. Sparrow (Parton), who is convinced that a more contemporary sounds is the way to go.

Though the town would seem to need the inspiration of a choir more than ever, budgetary issues threaten the existence of the choir itself, so both women must find a way to not only work together but whip the choir into shape in time for the national “Joyful Noise” choir competition, a process made more complicated by the burgeoning romance developing between Vi Rose’s daughter Olivia (Keke Palmer) and G.G.’s grandson Randy (Jeremy Jordan). Kris Kristofferson and Jesse L. Martin also co-star.

It was just over seven years ago that the similarly-themed The Fighting Temptations wrangled $30 million in a fall 2003 release. I think that Joyful Noise will do a bit better than that, pulling in $16 million in its first three days (where it will be shown in over 2,700 locations), on its way to four or five Top 5 points, three PTA and $44 million. I wouldn’t count on the Rating being that high, so I would probably consider taking this film more in Box Office (where it carries a price tage of $10) than in Ultimate (where it is also $10).


My predictions for the weekend of January 13-15, 2012:

1. Beauty and the Beast (3D re-release) - $27 million
2. Contraband - $18 million
3. Joyful Noise - $16 million
4. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $12 million
5. The Devil Inside - $10 million
6. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four more films take center stage as we plow on through January: Underworld Awakening, the fourth film in the vampries-vs.-werewolves franchise, with Kate Beckinsale back in the starring role; Haywire, a espionage action-thriller from director Stephen Soderbergh; Red Tails, a historical drama about the Tuskegee Airmen, the first-ever African-Americans to be trained as combat pilots in WWII; and, in limited release, Coriolanus, an adaptation of the Shakespearean tragedy starring Ralph Fiennes and Gerard Butler.

Later!

Shrykespeare

Ultimate FY Round Ten (FINAL RESULTS)

Winner: donnie
Runners-up: Geezer, jas_8382 (tie)

Winning slate: Real Steel, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, Shame, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, Carnage, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, A Separation

Ultimate HY Round Five (FINAL RESULTS)

Winner: Walleye413
Runners-up: undeadmonkey
Third place: Geezer

Winning slate: Martha Marcy May Marlene, Puss in Boots, The Descendants, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1, The Artist, Shame, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, A Separation

Box Office FY Round TEn (FINAL RESULTS)

Winner: Geezer
Runners-up: aquamann2001
Third place: undeadmonkey


Winning slate: Puss in Boots, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Misison: Impossible Ghost Protocol

Box Office HY Round Five (FINAL RESULTS)

Winner: jas_8382
Runners-up: undeadmonkey
Third place: donnie

Winning slate: Puss in Boots, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1, The Muppets, Young Adult, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol

Congratulations to all the winners!

Shrykespeare