Well, THAT was a surprise. I was almost sure that Avatar’s time on top wouldn’t end until Valentine’s weekend, but along comes Dear John and upsets the apple-cart. I mean, I know it had to drop from that #1 spot eventually, but I sure didn’t think this was the movie that would do it. (Just like I’m sure most people didn’t think Titanic’s 16-week run at the top would be ended by the incredibly lame Lost in Space.) Kudos to those players who chose it for the slates, and even bigger ones to those guys who had to sit through it. (I didn’t see it, but to paraphrase Lisa Simpson, I heard it was so sappy, you needed to blow your nose with a pancake afterwards.)

As you know, Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend coming up, and if you look at the crop of movies that are coming out on Friday, you’ll get the impression that the appetizers of January are over, and we are finally getting into the entrées that early 2010 has to offer. Case in point: only three films (Tooth Fairy, Edge of Darkness, Avatar) were shown in 3,000 or more theaters this past weekend, but look for all three to drop below that number come Friday. ALL THREE of this weekend’s new films will be bowing in over 3,000 locations (according to Box Office Mojo), which is something that very rarely happens. Clearly Fox, Warner Bros. and Universal are betting big on these three films. Do they all have blockbuster potential? Yes. Will they all deliver? Well…

Up first we have a film totally appropriate for its release date, that being Valentine’s Day, this year’s obligatory multi-talented, multi-story-arc rom-com, very much like He’s Just Not That Into You did one year ago, soaring to $93 million in domestic revenues despite so-so reviews. Set to bow in roughly 3,600 locations, Valentine’s Day is directed by veteran Hollywood helmer Garry Marshall, who was in the big chair for such romantic fare as Pretty Woman, Runaway Bride and both Princess Diaries movies. He looks to improve – by an order of magnitude – over his last outing, the shrill Georgia Rule.

Not only that, his Valentine’s cast is a leaps-and-bounds improvement over Lindsay Lohan and Jane Fonda. Check this out: Jessica Alba, Jessica Biel, Bradley Cooper, Ashton Kutcher, Julia Roberts, Jamie Foxx, Anna Hathaway, Shirley MacLaine, Jennifer Garner, Patrick Dempsey, Eric Dane, Emma Roberts, Taylor Swift, Taylor Lautner, Joe Jonas, Queen Latifah, Topher Grace, Kathy Bates, Hector Elizondo and George Lopez. I mean, wow. Jacob Black, The cute guy from The Hangover, Dr. McDreamy, Kelso AND Forman, and a Jonas Brother to boot? What girl, from age 12 on, WOULDN’T want to see this tidal wave of hunkiness?

As for what’s it’s about? Well, it’s about “casually intertwining stories of the heart that take place over the course of one Valentine’s Day.” Which means we probably explore every facet of the falling-in- or out-of-love process, with different age groups and generations represented. Seriously, though, given the time of year, the pedigree of the cast and director, and the fact that there really hasn’t been a good romantic comedy since It’s Complicated (sorry, Leap Year), and there won’t be any more offerings in this genre until mid-March, it would seem a foolhardy idea to bet against Valentine’s Day. Dear John may have ended Avatar’s reign of terror, but at the risk of repeating myself, Valentine’s Day will be shown in a lot more theaters. It’s the widest release any 2010 movie has been given so far, in fact.

I predict an opening three-day weekend of $34 million for Valentine’s Day (with a bigger percentage falling on Sunday than most), on its way to twelve Top 5 points, three PTA, a user rating around 6.5 and about $100 million. For $20 in the February Ultimate leagues ($21 in Box Office), it seems like a fairly solid and safe pick.

Up next we have The Wolfman, the latest attempt to remake or reboot a horror classic. In this case, it is actually a remake of the 1941 film starring the immortal Lon Chaney Jr., who many horror historians will tell you is one of the best-remembered films in the glory days of Hollywood. Which means, to do it justice, it’d better have a stellar cast and a director who knows what he’s doing… fortunately, this version of The Wolfman seems to have both.

Though Joe Johnston has mostly done light-hearted fare in the past (Honey I Shrunk the Kids, Jumanji, The Rocketeer), his last outing, Hidalgo, had a much more serious air. Wolfman is his first foray into horror, but his cast is well-seasoned and well-respected, including two Academy Award-winners in Sir Anthony Hopkins and Benicio Del Toro, as well as Hugo Weaving (V for Vendetta) and the up-and-coming Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria).

Set in the 1880’s, the story is centered on Lawrence Talbot (Del Toro), who returns to his ancestral home and reuniting with his father (Hopkins) after his brother has been killed. He clearly has less-than-fond memories of the place, but a plea from his brother’s fiancée Gwen (Blunt) persuades him to return home. He learns that something ferocious has been mauling local villagers, which also prompts a Scotland Yard inspector named Aberline (Weaving) to investigate. But when Lawrence discovers that he is the latest in a familial line that are victims of an ancient curse – one that causes transmorphing into a bestial, snarling werewolf when the moon is full – things take a terrifying turn.

I’m not a big fan of horror, but I find myself not only wanting to see The Wolfman, but hoping that it does well. Unlike last year’s Friday the 13th reboot, I admire the chutzpah it takes to re-tell a classic story in the same way while bringing new life to it. Not that I want a bevy of sequels to follow should this film find success, but rather, just the opposite… as a stand-alone piece of entertainment, I think it would be better served.

R-rated horror often has a hard time finding an audience. But given this cast, I really wouldn’t expect the teen crowd to be lining up for this one anyway. I expect The Wolfman to debut at #2 this weekend, with about $22 million coming in its first three days. For $17 (in both leagues), you can expect about eight or nine Top 5 points, a few PTA, about $75 million and an outstanding User Rating - it currently sits at an unbelievable 8.9 on IMDb with over 400 votes. It will certainly drop after it is release, but it probably won’t go much below 8.1. The only review I could find was on IMDb as well, and it said (for what it’s worth) that the acting was superb, but that it dragged in places and included a few unnecessary sub-plots.)

So it really is up to you decide what you need more: if you’d rather get slightly more money and Top 5 points, go with Valentine’s Day. If you’d rather punch up your User Rating, go with The Wolfman.

With three big films coming out in the same weekend, all of them bowing in over 3,000 locations, one of them has to end up on the short end of the stick, and I’m betting that one will be Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief. Not because I think it’s a bad film, but because it lacks the oomph of the other two.

As you know, the Harry Potter series will be wrapping up soon. The Chronicles of Narnia's third chapter will be coming this winter, and it seems unlikely that any more of C.S. Lewis’s beloved novels will be adapted into films any time soon. So what is there in the teen-fantasy genre that has the stones to take the place of the boy wizard? Well, The Golden Compass failed utterly a couple of years ago, but maybe Percy Jackson can fill the bill, at least marginally.

One thing’s for sure: they’re really plugging the film as Harry’s successor, especially given that Percy is being directed by Chris Columbus, who got the Harry Potter series out of the gate in a big way, leading The Sorcerer’s Stone to a domestic take of $317 million and The Chamber of Secrets to $262 million. And while Rick Riordan’s series of books doesn’t hold a candle to J.K. Rowling’s gazillion-copies-sold epic, its adaptation is going to give it the old college try.

The titular character, Percy Jackson (Gamer’s Logan Lerman), is a teenager who discovers that he is the demigod son of the Greek god Poseidon (Kevin McKidd), a role that includes a lot of really cool superhuman abilities, including harnessing the power of lightning. Along with his friends Annabeth Chase (Alexandra Daddario) – who is a daughter of Athena – and a satyr named Grover Underwood (Brandon Jackson), Percy must try to save his mother (Catherine Keener), recover the lightning bolt stolen from Zeus (Sean Bean), and prevent a war between the gods. (No pressure, kid.) Pierce Brosnan, Rosario Dawson, Steve Coogan and Uma Thurman also co-star.

Well, what can I say about this? I’m not a teenager, and I haven't read the books, so I really have no way to gauge just how popular this story is, or might be, for the teenage set. There’s no way in hell that it will come close to the popularity of Harry Potter, but it’s entirely possible that it may set itself up as a worthy, if lesser, successor. (Hey! That rhymes!)

Both reviews over at RT are positive, and its decent ad campaign and 3,300-theater release platform should be a recipe for success. But I remain unconvinced. I will probably be watching this film at some point, and it looks entertaining, but then, so did From Paris With Love. Not that I’m comparing the two films, I’m just saying. I may be way off, but I’ll predict an opening three-day weekend of $20 million, good enough for #3 (just ahead of Dear John, which I expect to lose about 50% of its audience, and Avatar, which finally has some worthy competition).

Like Wolfman, it too costs $17 in both leagues. But I foresee only six Top 5 points, a couple of PTA, about $55 million and a decent User Rating. In an incredibly crowded weekend, I am betting this one will end up with the least impressive numbers when all is said and done.

I’m not sure whether it will be added in time, but just in case it is, I’ll say a few words about My Name is Khan, this week’s only (cursory) limited release. If it’s up by Friday, it will be worth $4 in the February Ultimate leagues. It is a Bollywood film, and it tells the story of Rizwan Khan (Shahrukh Khan), an Indian Muslim with Asperger syndrome. Growing up in Mumbai and later moving to San Francisco, Khan eventually falls in love with a woman named Mandira (Kajol). But Khan’s seemingly perfect life is shattered after the events of 9/11, after which all Muslims were treated as potential threats. After a series of brutal encounters, he embarks on a journey to Washington D.C. for a word with the Commander-in-Chief himself.

Box Office Mojo has My Name is Khan coming out in 120 theaters, which seems to me to be rather too many to make it a viable PTA choice. So, if it’s there, my advice is: don’t take it.


My predictions for the weekend of February 12-15/16, 2010:

1. Valentine’s Day – $34 million ($43 million 4-day)
2. The Wolfman – $22 million ($28 million 4-day)
3. Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief – $20 million ($27 million 4-day)
4. Dear John – $18 million ($22 million 4-day)
5. Avatar – $16 million ($21 million 4-day)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll have very little to write about, as it looks like there will only be two films that will possibly be included in the February leagues, those being: Shutter Island, the Martin Scorsese-led horror/thriller starring Leonardo DiCaprio that was supposed to have been release last October; and The Ghost Writer, a political thriller starring Pierce Brosnan as a former British Prime Minister and Ewan McGregor as the ghost-writer hired to complete his memoirs, and who uncovers secrets in the P.M.’s life that may put his own in jeopardy.

Later!

http://forum.reelsociety.com

Shrykespeare

Repo Men (previously scheduled on 4/2/2010) is now released on 3/19/2010

The Good, the Bad and the Weird (previously scheduled on 4/9/2010) is now scheduled on 4/23/2010

Donnie

Diary of a Wimpy kid (previously scheduled on 4/2/2010) is now released on 3(19/2010

The last song (previously scheduled on 4/2/2010) is now scheduled on 3/31/2010

Clash of the Titans (previously scheduled on 3/26/2010) is now scheduled on 4/2/2010

The back-up plan (previously scheduled on 4/16/2010) is now released on 4/23/2010

Donnie

(NOTE: I am writing this column under the sincerest hopes that the February leagues will be available come Friday. Things may happen in an extreme rush, so all of you, watch these boards and your in-boxes diligently.)

As we speak, we are but scant days away from watching Avatar pass Titanic’s previously-thought-as-unbreakable domestic box office record. I am somewhat ambivalent about this historical occurrence, having mixed feelings as I do about both films. On the one hand, Titanic was expertly made, fairly well-acted, and quite engaging despite its prodigious length. Did it deserve all of its 11 Oscars? Maybe, maybe not. But it was #1 at the Box Office for four consecutive months, never making more than $35 million in any (three-day) weekend. Slow, steady, the quintessence of consistence.

Avatar, on the other hand, has been able to reach $600 million in far, far less time, starting out with an opening weekend of $77 million and then following it up with weekends of $75 million, $68 million, $50 million, $42 million, $34 million and finally $30 million. Not to mention the fact that it did tremendously well on weekdays, boosted as it was by its continuous run on 3D and IMAX 3D screens. Will it win as many Oscars as Titanic? Honestly, I hope not. It deserves every technical award there is, but Best Picture? No. There were better movies this year. Being a record-breaker should not have any influence on Academy voting, and it never has. After all, The Dark Knight was not even nominated (and it deserved to be).

So, seven weeks and counting… Is an eighth likely? Judging by this Friday’s crop of movies, I’d say yes. Avatar’s final week at #1 will likely be this weekend, as there are no less than three films coming the following Friday with some very decent box office potential. This weekend, there are only two wide-release films, both being put into roughly 2,500 theaters, and neither one really looks like it has enough widespread appeal to dethrone the champ. The first of those two is From Paris With Love, a title that is no doubt supposed to bring back memories of early Bond classic From Russia With Love. But from what I’ve seen (and from what few reviews I’ve read), the comparison should stop right there.

Directed by Pierre Morel (who helmed last year’s surprise hit Taken) and written and co-produced by Luc Besson (La Femme Nikita), Paris seems to be a low-grade, cliché-ridden action-flick-slash-buddy-comedy. Much in the same vein as, say, the Rush Hour films, Paris throws together two men with nothing in common and hope that some on-screen chemistry developes.

Jonathan Rhys Meyers plays James Reece, a personal aide to the American ambassador in Paris (Richard Durden). More of an intellectual than a man of action, he prefers time with his fiancé (Kasia Smutniak) and a game of chess over danger. But when he is offered a chance at promotion, he swallows his fear and hooks up with Charlie Wax (John Travolta), an arrogant spy/assassin, with whom he must help to uncover a terrorist plot to destroy the French capital, as well as… uh, shoot some Chinese guys, I guess.

The one review at RT that I’ve read seems to bear out my fears, calling From Paris With Love a complete mess, with Travolta “humiliating himself with a shaved head, jumping from roof to roof, leaning out a car window with a bazooka” and Meyers simply “insipid” as Reece. The villains appear to be straight out of central casting. Of course, this doesn’t necessarily add up to automatic failure, as audiences often go for this kind of thing. We all know that films don’t have to be good to do well (otherwise, how would G-Force have made over $100 million?).

Assuming that the February leagues are up before Friday, From Paris With Love will run you $10 in both the Ultimate and Box Office leagues. It will probably end up at #2 this weekend, but with some pretty good competition coming in the next few weeks, it won’t stay near the top for very long. Say, five Top 5 points, $45 million in total take and a User Rating in the 6’s. For PTA, well, since this is the first week of the new season, that means the PTA slate has been wiped clean. That means that Paris may be able to cop a couple of PTA points, but it may not. There are a lot of limited release films that will probably beat it in that category (which I’ll get to in a bit). I would probably pass on this title.

Up next is Dear John, the latest story to be adapted to the big screen from a Nicholas Sparks romantic novel. Following previous efforts Message in a Bottle, A Walk to Remember, The Notebook and Nights in Rodanthe, Dear John is hoping to capitalize on the success of its author, and using two fairly hot young actors to tell the story.

Channing Tatum (G.I. Joe) plays John Tyree, a loner who lives with his father (Richard Jenkins). While on leave from the army, he meets a college student (Amanda Seyfried) from a wealthy family. As their relationship blossoms, John is called back to duty, pledging to finish his two-year tour in Iraq before returning home to marry her. In return, she promises to write him letters every day.

Sounds very romantic, but Sparks has been down this road before. The Notebook was about reading a year’s worth of letters out loud to a patient with dementia. And all the elements are present in Dear John as well – the writing, the secrets, the other lover, the mental turmoil. At least the director, Lasse Hallstrom, is no stranger to this kind of film, having helmed What’s Eating Gilbert Grape, The Cider House Rules and Chocolat.

This is not my kind of movie, but it looks exactly like the kind of film that young women will want their boyfriends to take them to. Older women? Who knows. But I don’t have to tell you that most modern-day stories involving the military tend to fall flat, and Dear John, though a love story at heart, may join those ranks.

This title will run you $9 in Ultimate leagues and $10 in Box Office. I don’t think that much of its box office prospects, given that Valentine’s Day, another romantic movie with better advertising, a much better cast and a more alluring premise, is coming only one week later. Dear John will likely debut at #3 or #4 this Friday, and that will be it. Its User Rating is anybody’s guess, and I wouldn’t pick it for its PTA prospects either.

And now, a bit about the plethora of limited-release films coming out this weekend. I know very little about the prospective number of screens these films will be debuting on, but I’ll do my best to guide you. My best advice: watch the theater counts of all these films very closely.

Frozen ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – Director Adam Green (Hatchet) brings us a dramatic thriller about three skiers (Emma Bell, Shawn Ashmore and Kevin Zegers) who try to get one last ski run in at their favorite resort when the unthinkable happens: they are sitting on a chairlift halfway up the mountain when the ski patrol switches off the power and goes home for the week. Stranded fifty feet off the ground, the trio must find a way to save themselves before they freeze to death.

Much like Open Water, Frozen looks to be a tense thriller. It has gotten very good reviews so far (4/4 at RT), with critics giving kudos like “a potent combination of absolute terror and compelling human drama”, “…it will do for skiing what Jaws did for swimming”, and “will send different sets of shivers down the audience’s spines”. Seems like a good pick, but if I had to guess, I’d say that the theater count will be several hundred, which makes PTA a dicey prospect at best.

District B13 – Ultimatum ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – another action film directed by From Paris With Love's Pierre Morel. It is the English language release of a 2009 French action film entitled Banlieue 13 Ultimatum, and a sequel to District 13. In this story, main characters Damien (Cyril Raffaelli) and Leto (David Belle) must return to District 13 – a troubled sector controlled by five different gang bosses – to try to bring peace before the city government attempts a more radical (and final solution).

It’s gotten very good reviews (74% Fresh at RT), but its User Rating is only so-so (6.5 with nearly 4,000 votes). Action movies are very rarely PTA champs, particularly limited-release films, though Luc Besson (who also wrote the screenplay) does carry some weight. Odds are good that it will pick up some PTA, but how many? Who knows.

The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Documentaries, on the other hand, are a much surer bet for PTA points, particularly when they pack as much punch as this one. This one centers on Daniel Ellsberg, an insider who “fired the first shot that brought down the Nixon regime”.

If you don’t know who Ellsberg is (and I didn’t), here’s the skinny: he is a former Marine who helped fight the Cold War up close and personal. He worked for years as an analyst, finally releasing the “Pentagon Papers” in 1971, which were basically an extended history of the United States’ involvement in Southeast Asia, along with proof that every administration from Truman through Nixon had lied about said involvement.

It’s too detailed to go into here, but Ellsberg is definitely set up as the white knight here, but most critics agree that directors Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith do so with no grandiosity or pomposity. Dangerous Man has amazing numbers across the board (100% Fresh on 15/15 reviews at RT, 8.5 with 45 votes at IMDb), and it is my choice for PTA pick of the week.

The Korean ($4 Ult, $1 BO) – I couldn’t find much info on this film, beyond its description: “A big city crime-lord is betrayed by four associates. With only hours before his arrest, he calls in the deadliest cleaner to get revenge.” Said cleaner is Lee (Josiah D. Lee), who plies his trade with “two guns, one knife, no mercy”, according to the tagline.

This is the directorial debut of Thomas Dixon, and the first big role for Lee, who has done mostly supporting work in the past. Its current User Rating is an impressive 9.1, but that’s only with nine votes. It could very well pick up a few PTA, and it’s very cheap, so even if it doesn’t, it won’t hurt you too much. The final Rating probably won’t drop much below 7.7.

Terribly Happy ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This is a Danish film that is bowing on limited screens in New York and Los Angeles. It is a drama that centers on a cop (Jakob Cedergren) who is transferred to a hick town (here inbreeding is common) after suffering a nervous breakdown. I wasn’t able to find out much about the actual plot, but the one review I found was promising. Happy is, in fact, Denmark’s entry for Best Foreign Film in the Oscar race this year.

Its current Rating is 7.1 (with almost 1000 votes), so again, its cheap price tag won’t hurt you much if you swing and miss. However, foreign dramas are often excelling sources of PTA, and this one could a gold mine, particularly when you consider that ZERO limited-release films are scheduled for next week.

My predictions for the weekend of January 29-31, 2010:

1. Avatar – $23 million
2. From Paris With Love – $16 million
3. Dear John – $14 million
4. Edge of Darkness – $11 million
5. Tooth Fairy – $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, three new films to talk about, all of them big ones, as we have finally reached Valentine’s weekend. And those films are: The Wolfman, a re-telling of the classic tale starring Sir Anthony Hopkins, Benicio Del Toro and Hugo Weaving; Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, a Harry Potter-ish story about a youth with magical powers that must face a bevy of unearthly monsters; and Valentine’s Day, the season’s obligatory love-soaked rom-com telling the story of a number of good-looking couples and singles exploring the ins and outs of romantic relationships.

Later!

http://forum.reelsociety.com

Shrykespeare

The new release date for The Hot Tub Time Machine (previously scheduled on 3/19) is the 3/26.

Donnie